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← All candidatesEngine ActivityThis scan
Over 3.5 total goals · Total
Gates that did not pass
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
Matchbook offers a market-leading price of 2.360 on Portland Timbers against a 16-operator median of 2.140, ostensibly driven by Minnesota United goalkeeper Drake Callender's injury. However, the price is supported by only a single observation with 10.28% market dispersion, offers zero margin over the 2.360 threshold before exchange commission, and overlooks significant Portland injury absences.
Primary case
Market context
What the price requires
Major uncertainty
The proposed price of 2.360 from Matchbook sits on the edge of an unexplained 10.28% dispersion against a median of 2.140 across 16 operators, captured on a single sample with zero price history, and clears the acceptable threshold (2.36) with zero margin before factoring in exchange commission.
Material findings and their support
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
The proposed price of 2.360 from Matchbook sits on the edge of an unexplained 10.28% dispersion against a median of 2.140 across 16 operators, captured on a single sample with zero price history, and clears the acceptable threshold (2.36) with zero margin before factoring in exchange commission.
Blocking questions
Why the market may simply be right