Declined after researchCandidate · not a published position
Football · Dutch Eredivisie · Starts
NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION
This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.
Decision
Outcome
Declined after research
Decided
Main reason
Evidence grade below the lockable set (and 3 more)
Gates that did not pass
Event integrityToo close to the start for a lockFailed
EvidenceA material claim was not adequately supportedFailed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.
Event integrityToo close to the start for a lockFailed
EvidenceA material claim was not adequately supportedFailed
PriceRecorded price clears the minimum qualifying oddsPassed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed
Research
Evidence grade CAdversarial review · Blocking
SC Cambuur at SC Telstar Research Note
An edge of 3.95% is noted at unibet_nl with a quote of 4.900 against a devigged fair price of 4.714. However, the foundational research rests on a stale head-to-head record from October 2023 and an unsupported form claim, alongside verified squad doubts for Cambuur.
Primary case
Unibet offers a price of 4.900, which clears the calculated acceptable threshold of 4.88 against a devigged fair price of 4.714 based on a median reference price of 4.400 across 48 operators.
SC Cambuur holds an 8-match unbeaten streak against SC Telstar (7 wins, 1 draw) per sports data and claim CL-4b9a814b-3c5, though this record is flagged as stale.
SC Telstar has zero confirmed unavailable players, while SC Cambuur deals with confirmed absences and injury concerns.
Major uncertainty
The qualitative case backing SC Cambuur is fundamentally unsound because the key head-to-head dominance claim is severely stale (from October 2023) and the team form claim is completely unsourced and unsupported.
Market context
The current best price is 4.900 at unibet_nl, providing a 3.95% edge over the devigged fair price of 4.714.
The market reference price is 4.400 established across 48 bookmakers using the MEDIAN_OF_OPERATORS methodology, representing a 21.21% devigged fair win probability with a 7.14% market overround.
Market dispersion stands at 11.36% across 48 monitored operators.
Directional price movement and opening price are unknown due to only a single price sample at 4.900.
What the price requires
The price of 4.900 requires an implied win probability of at least 20.41% to break even, compared to the devigged fair probability of 21.21%.
The position requires SC Cambuur to perform above their recent form, overcoming zero points in league play and 13 consecutive matches without a clean sheet.
Material findings and their support7
Injury · material · for the caseSC Cambuur defender Jorn Berkhout is a doubt after being forced off with an injury in the match against FC Twente.Supported
Injury · for the caseDaan Visser remains unavailable for SC Cambuur as he continues rehabilitation from a knee injury.Supported
Venue · for the caseThe match will take place at BUKO Stadion.Supported
Other · for the caseJoey Kooij is assigned as the match referee.Supported
Availability · against the caseSC Telstar has no reported player absences due to injury or suspension.Unsupported
Statistic · material · against the caseSC Cambuur is unbeaten across their last 8 meetings with SC Telstar, recording 7 wins and 1 draw.Stale
Statistic · material · against the caseSC Cambuur has lost all 4 of their opening Eredivisie fixtures of the season, registering 0 points and conceding 16 goals.Unsupported
Adversarial review
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
The qualitative case backing SC Cambuur is fundamentally unsound: the key head-to-head dominance claim is severely stale (from October 2023), and the team form claim is completely unsourced and unsupported, resulting in an unviable evidence grade of C.
Blocking questions and why the market may be right
Blocking questions
FIND-01 [STALE_EVIDENCE] Material claim CL-4b9a814b-3c5 is marked STALE and cannot support the proposition. (refs: CL-4b9a814b-3c5, CS-6d442ad4-775)
FIND-02 [UNSUPPORTED_CLAIM] Material claim CL-50344ba3-bab is entirely unsupported by any cited source. (refs: CL-50344ba3-bab)
Why the market may simply be right
48 bookmakers establish a consensus median of 4.400 with a devigged fair price of 4.714, suggesting the true probability of Cambuur winning away is relatively low (~21.2%) given their poor form.
Unibet's 4.900 quote may simply be an isolated outlier in a high-variance away-dog market.
Why it entered research
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
The screening row for this candidate was not retained.
Market
Match Winner
Best verified price
4.900
Market reference
4.400 · 48 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
4.88 · edge 3.95%
Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.
