Declined after researchCandidate · not a published position
Football · K League 1 · Starts
NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION
This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.
Decision
Outcome
Declined after research
Decided
Main reason
Evidence grade below the lockable set (and 2 more)
Gates that did not pass
PriceRecorded price below the minimum qualifying oddsFailed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.
Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceMaterial claims supported by enough distinct sources
Passed
PriceRecorded price below the minimum qualifying oddsFailed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed
Research
Evidence grade CAdversarial review · Blocking
Gimcheon Sangmu vs Gwangju FC: Under 2.5 Goals Analysis
While Gimcheon Sangmu exhibits low-scoring metrics averaging 1.5 total goals across their last 6 matches, Gwangju FC presents contrary form averaging 2.67 total goals. With the case relying on a single material claim from an affiliate source and blocking red team findings regarding contradictory data, the proposition lacks sufficient evidential grounding despite an observed price of 2.180.
Primary case
Over their last 6 matches, Gimcheon Sangmu matches averaged 1.5 total goals (0.5 scored, 1.0 conceded), with 67% finishing under 2.5 goals (CL-21296ac7-ee6, CS-cdecd417-8ea).
Gimcheon Sangmu has recorded 15 draws across 26 league matches entering matchday 27 (CL-b3342f4f-73e).
The previous head-to-head meeting between Gwangju FC and Gimcheon Sangmu on July 22, 2026 concluded in a 1-1 draw (CL-85bad08e-770).
Major uncertainty
The proposition rests on a single material claim backed by a lone Tier 3 source, and the cited evidence itself reveals Gwangju FC matches averaging 2.67 goals (exceeding the 2.5 line), actively undermining the thesis for Under 2.5.
Market context
The best available decimal price is 2.180 offered by Matchbook in the UK region, recorded at 2026-09-06T05:24:38.519Z (OE-7ecbfa70d0614fdd).
The market reference price is 1.950 based on the median of 19 surveyed operators, producing a de-vigged fair price of 2.083 (48.00% probability) against an overround of 6.84%.
The acceptable threshold price is 2.16 under policy v1.0, reflecting a calculated theoretical edge of 4.66%.
Price dispersion across the 19 operators is elevated at 11.79%, approaching the 12.00% plausibility cap.
What the price requires
A market decimal price of 2.180 implies a breakeven probability of 45.87%.
The de-vigged fair price requires the true occurrence rate of Under 2.5 goals to exceed 48.00% to deliver the estimated 4.66% edge against the threshold price of 2.16.
Material findings and their support8
Statistic · for the caseThe previous league meeting between Gwangju FC and Gimcheon Sangmu on July 22, 2026 finished in a 1-1 draw.Supported
Statistic · for the caseOver their last 6 matches, Gimcheon Sangmu matches have averaged 1.5 total goals (0.5 scored, 1.0 conceded), with 67% finishing under 2.5 goals.Supported
Statistic · for the caseOver their last 6 matches, Gwangju FC matches have averaged 2.67 total goals (1.0 scored, 1.67 conceded), with 50% finishing under 2.5 goals.Supported
Statistic · for the caseGimcheon Sangmu has recorded 15 draws in 26 league matches entering matchday 27.Supported
Other · material · for the caseGimcheon Sangmu's recent 6 matches averaged 1.5 total goals with 67% finishing under 2.5 goals, whereas Gwangju FC's averaged 2.67 goals with 50% under 2.5 goals.Supported
Other · for the caseGimcheon Sangmu's home city agreement was granted a one-year extension by the K League board in 2025 following past relocations from Gwangju and Sangju.Supported
Injury · against the caseGwangju FC midfielder/forward Kyoung-rok Choi is expected to miss the match due to an unknown injury.Stale
Other · against the caseThe previous head-to-head match on July 22, 2026 ended in a 1-1 draw, and Gwangju FC's Kyoung-rok Choi is sidelined due to injury.Stale
Adversarial review
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
The proposition rests on a single material claim backed by a lone Tier 3 source, and the cited evidence itself reveals Gwangju FC matches averaging 2.67 goals (exceeding the 2.5 line), actively undermining the thesis for UNDER 2.5.
Blocking questions and why the market may be right
Blocking questions
F-01 [RESEARCH_CONCLUSION_UNSUPPORTED] The sole material claim CL-09844322-8dd presents contradictory evidence (Gwangju FC averaging 2.67 goals) and relies entirely on one Tier 3 source (CS-9b772b91-9d5), failing to carry the conclusion that UNDER 2.5 holds positive expectation. (refs: CL-09844322-8dd, CS-9b772b91-9d5)
Why the market may simply be right
The median market price across 19 operators is 1.950 with fair de-vigged odds at 2.083; the market median already reflects the balanced 50/50 probability implied by Gwangju FC's 2.67 goal average, meaning Matchbook's 2.180 quote may simply reflect extreme dispersion near the 12.00% plausibility cap rather than genuine alpha.
Why it entered research
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
The screening row for this candidate was not retained.
Market
Total
Best verified price
2.180
Market reference
1.980 · 19 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
2.19 · edge 3.22%
Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.
