Declined after researchCandidate · not a published position
Football · Dutch Eredivisie · Starts
NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION
This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.
Decision
Outcome
Declined after research
Decided
Main reason
Recorded price below the minimum qualifying odds (and 1 more)
Gates that did not pass
EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
PriceRecorded price below the minimum qualifying oddsFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.
Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
PriceRecorded price below the minimum qualifying oddsFailed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyNo unresolved conflict or blocking questionPassed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review raised no blocking objectionPassed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed
Research
Evidence grade BAdversarial review · Low
SC Telstar vs SC Cambuur: Market Pricing Assessment and Exchange Margin Analysis
Evaluation of market pricing for SC Telstar vs SC Cambuur at BUKO Stadion (CL-88c515b4-d4a), assessing an available 4.800 price on smarkets against a 4.612 fair price baseline derived from 55 operators.
Primary case
SC Cambuur has struggled defensively and results-wise, losing all four opening league fixtures with 0 points and a 4:16 goal difference (CL-f147e4e6-78f, CS-55914e9b-7f2).
SC Cambuur contends with confirmed squad absences including defender Daan Visser (knee injury, CL-fd9594a6-867) and an active injury doubt over defender Jorn Berkhout (CL-bd7a12ec-d0e).
SC Telstar holds 3 league points from their opening matches (CS-6c3f9426-77a), though squad completeness claims for Telstar remain unsupported (CL-c9eed9a4-d18).
Major uncertainty
The edge over the acceptable price threshold is extremely slim (4.800 vs 4.780 threshold) and relies on an exchange quote (smarkets) where unrecorded commission and execution costs typically erode thin margins, alongside high market dispersion (11.63%) close to the 12.00% allowable ceiling.
Market context
The best global price of 4.800 is observed on smarkets in the UK region (OE-bd043b1ab8fd35da), clearing the 4.780 acceptable price threshold.
The median market reference price across 55 operators is 4.300, which de-vigs to a fair price of 4.612 (21.68% fair probability) under a 7.26% overround.
Dispersion across the 55 surveyed operators stands at 11.63%, and historical trajectory is unknown due to only 1 observation sample being recorded.
What the price requires
The price of 4.800 requires an implied outcome probability below 20.83% to deliver positive expectation against the fair probability estimate of 21.68%.
Execution must maintain net realizable returns at or above the 4.780 acceptable threshold after any exchange fees or liquidity slippage.
Material findings and their support6
Injury · for the caseSC Cambuur defender Daan Visser is confirmed unavailable as he recovers from a knee injury sustained early last season.Supported
Availability · material · for the caseSC Cambuur 24-year-old defender Jorn Berkhout is an injury doubt after being forced off during their previous match against FC Twente.Supported
Venue · for the caseThe match will take place at BUKO Stadion in Velsen-Zuid.Supported
Other · for the caseJoey Kooij has been appointed as the referee for the match.Supported
Statistic · material · for the caseSC Cambuur sits bottom of the Eredivisie table having lost all four of their opening league fixtures (0 points, 4:16 goal difference).Supported
Availability · against the caseSC Telstar has no reported unavailable players ahead of the match.Unsupported
Adversarial review
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
The edge over the acceptable price threshold is extremely slim (4.800 vs 4.780 threshold) and relies on an exchange quote (smarkets) where unrecorded commission and execution costs typically erode thin margins, alongside high market dispersion (11.63%) close to the 12.00% allowable ceiling.
Blocking questions and why the market may be right
Why the market may simply be right
With 55 operators pricing the draw around a median of 4.300, the broader market consensus suggests a true probability closer to 21-23%, meaning the 4.800 quote may just be an exchange tail quote rather than mispriced value.
Why it entered research
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
The screening row for this candidate was not retained.
Market
Match Winner
Best verified price
4.600
Market reference
4.300 · 55 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
4.78 · edge -0.26%
Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.
