This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. The case survived; only the price or recoverable data failed. It re-enters when the stated condition is met.
Decision
Outcome
Watchlist
Decided
Main reason
Recorded price below the minimum qualifying odds
What has to change
Re-enters if the best verified price reaches 3.24 (last seen 3.200).
Gates that did not pass
PriceRecorded price below the minimum qualifying oddsFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.
Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceMaterial claims supported by enough distinct sourcesPassed
PriceRecorded price below the minimum qualifying oddsFailed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyNo unresolved conflict or blocking questionPassed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review raised no blocking objectionPassed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed
Research
Evidence grade B+Adversarial review · No objection
Championship: Birmingham City vs Wolverhampton Wanderers Market Evaluation
Birmingham City host Wolverhampton Wanderers at St Andrew's in their first league derby meeting since 2017-18. Birmingham enter unbeaten in four Championship matches (1 win, 3 draws) but face injury issues including Ethan Laird, Marc Leonard, and Max Bird being ruled out, alongside Demarai Gray doubtful with a shoulder issue. Wolves have recorded seven Championship points and scored 11 goals in four matches, looking to rebound from a 4-2 loss to West Ham. A market edge is observed on betfair_ex_uk at 3.200 against a consensus reference price of 2.900 across 59 operators, though clearance over the policy threshold of 3.19 is minimal.
Primary case
Birmingham City remain unbeaten through their first four Championship fixtures with 1 win and 3 draws (CL-bd57e40d-5bf, CS-85544661-0f8).
Wolves enter following their first defeat of the season (4-2 to West Ham) while conceding 8 goals in their opening 4 league games (CL-03cb260e-ee8, CS-a3bc690f-7f1).
The best global price of 3.200 on betfair_ex_uk presents a 4.03% theoretical edge against the de-vigged fair price of 3.076 derived from 59 operators (reference median 2.900).
Major uncertainty
The recorded best global price of 3.200 on betfair_ex_uk clears the acceptable price threshold of 3.19 by only 0.01, representing a razor-thin cushion where standard exchange commission or minor tick movement would eliminate the edge.
Market context
The best global price of 3.200 was captured on betfair_ex_uk in the UK region as of 2026-09-06T05:23:38.875Z, with no executable price currently available.
The median market price across 59 operators sits at 2.900; proportional de-vigging with a 6.07% overround establishes a fair decimal price of 3.076 (32.51% fair probability).
Under policy v1.0, an acceptable price threshold is set at 3.19 (incorporating a 2.00% edge buffer and a 1.50% uncertainty margin), which the 3.200 price currently clears.
Price dispersion across the 59 tracked sportsbooks is 10.34%, with only a single price movement sample recorded.
What the price requires
The 3.200 quote requires Birmingham City to hold a true win probability exceeding the market threshold implied by 3.19 after accounting for edge buffers.
Requires Birmingham's defensive solidity to overcome the confirmed absences of Ethan Laird, Marc Leonard, and Max Bird (CL-e9b56a4e-83c).
Requires market consensus (median 2.900) to be underestimating Birmingham's home derby performance potential against Wolves' offense.
Material findings and their support9
Injury · material · for the caseDemarai Gray has a shoulder injury suffered against Wrexham, leaving him in doubt for Birmingham City.Supported
Injury · material · for the caseEthan Laird, Marc Leonard, and Max Bird are ruled out for Birmingham City due to injury.Supported
Injury · material · for the caseKieran Trippier and Yerson Mosquera remain sidelined for Wolverhampton Wanderers.Supported
Availability · for the caseRafiki Said, Jean-Ricner Bellegarde, and Sam Johnstone are close to returning for Wolverhampton Wanderers.Supported
Venue · for the caseThe match takes place at St Andrew's in Birmingham.Supported
Rest · for the caseBoth teams played their preceding Championship match on the Tuesday prior to this Sunday fixture.Supported
Other · material · for the caseWolves look to bounce back from their first defeat of the season (4-2 to West Ham) as they visit Birmingham City, having earned seven points in their prior Championship matches with wins over Preston North End and Stoke City.Supported
Other · material · for the caseBirmingham City are unbeaten across their first four Championship fixtures with one win and three draws, hosting Wolves in their first league derby meeting since 2017-18.Supported
Other · material · for the caseBirmingham face an injury concern with Demarai Gray's shoulder, while Wolves remain without Kieran Trippier and Yerson Mosquera but have Rafiki Said, Jean-Ricner Bellegarde, and Sam Johnstone nearing return.Supported
Adversarial review
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
The recorded best global price of 3.200 on betfair_ex_uk clears the acceptable price threshold of 3.19 by only 0.01, representing a razor-thin cushion where standard exchange commission or minor tick movement would eliminate the edge.
Blocking questions and why the market may be right
Why the market may simply be right
The median market price across 59 operators is 2.900 with a de-vigged fair price of 3.076; the broader market strongly favors Wolves/Draw given Birmingham's injury list, suggesting the consensus price may accurately reflect Birmingham's depleted lineup.
Why it entered research
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
The screening row for this candidate was not retained.
Market
Match Winner
Best verified price
3.200
Market reference
2.950 · 59 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
3.24 · edge 2.30%
Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.
