Declined after researchCandidate · not a published position
Football · Eliteserien - Norway · Starts
NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION
This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.
Decision
Outcome
Declined after research
Decided
Main reason
Evidence grade below the lockable set (and 2 more)
Gates that did not pass
EvidenceNo source of a high enough tierFailed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.
Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceNo source of a high enough tier
Failed
PriceRecorded price clears the minimum qualifying oddsPassed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed
Research
Evidence grade CAdversarial review · Blocking
Kristiansund BK Match Evaluation and Squad Status Analysis
Evaluation of Kristiansund BK ahead of their September 2026 fixture indicates potential squad reinforcement with the return of Wilfred George Igor from suspension, set against an offered market price of 4.500 at BetRivers. However, the fundamental case is severely compromised by stale data, including reliance on six-year-old league standings and undated squad availability reports.
Primary case
Midfielder Wilfred George Igor has an expected return date of September 6, 2026, following a yellow card accumulation suspension (CL-cc49de4f-4e2, CL-8a85a010-abe).
Kristiansund BK is managed by Amund Skiri (CL-f543532d-631).
Historical record indicates Kristiansund in 14th place with 16 points across 18 matches with 4 wins, 4 draws, and 10 losses, though this metric is flagged stale (CL-1ff13799-ba7, CS-dff33d73-2a4).
Opponent Tromso is recorded at 3rd place with 35 points (CS-66a2623e-def).
Major uncertainty
Three of the five material research claims are verified as stale, including standings data relying on a 2020 source and availability reporting with null publication dates, disqualifying the factual foundation of the position.
Market context
Current best global price is observed at 4.500 via BetRivers (evidence OE-bfd0bcfc3569b753) recorded on 2026-09-06T15:13:47.346Z.
Consensus market reference price stands at 4.025, derived from the median across 48 operators.
De-vigging across three outcomes yields a fair decimal price of 4.339 and a fair win probability of 23.05%, against an overround of 7.80%.
Pricing across the 48 tracked operators reflects a dispersion of 11.80%, indicating moderate sportsbook variation.
Price movement cannot be established because only a single observation sample is available, leaving opening price and trend unknown.
What the price requires
A decimal price of 4.500 requires Kristiansund BK to possess a true win probability exceeding 22.22% (or higher than the devigged market fair win probability of 23.05%).
The assessment requires Kristiansund's current form and squad availability to be competitive against 3rd-place Tromso, an assumption unsupported by current data.
Material findings and their support6
Suspension · material · for the caseKristiansund BK midfielder Wilfred George Igor has an expected return date of September 6, 2026 following a yellow card accumulation suspension.Supported
Other · for the caseKristiansund BK is managed by Amund Skiri.Supported
Other · material · for the caseKristiansund midfielder Wilfred George Igor had an expected return date of September 6, 2026, following a yellow card suspension.Supported
Statistic · material · against the caseKristiansund BK sits in 14th place in the Eliteserien standings with 16 points from 18 matches (4 wins, 4 draws, 10 losses).Stale
Other · material · against the caseKristiansund had no unavailable players ahead of early September 2026 league action.Stale
Other · material · against the caseKristiansund sat 14th in the Eliteserien with 16 points from 18 matches heading into the Tromsø fixture.Stale
Adversarial review
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
Three of the five material research claims (CL-1ff13799-ba7, CL-04680e53-182, and CL-0b8f7ef5-aa9) are verified as STALE, including standings data relying on a 2020 source and availability reporting with null publication dates, causing evidence_grade_lockable to evaluate to false.
Blocking questions and why the market may be right
Blocking questions
F-001 [STALE_EVIDENCE] Majority of material claims are stale, including a six-year-old league table source and claims without publication timestamps, disqualifying the position from locking. (refs: CL-1ff13799-ba7, CS-dff33d73-2a4, CL-04680e53-182, CS-a7bcd646-054, CL-0b8f7ef5-aa9, CS-235ed6fc-d76)
Why the market may simply be right
The market median across 48 operators sits at 4.025, and market makers may be accurately reflecting Kristiansund's lower baseline win probability given current league struggles.
Why it entered research
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
The screening row for this candidate was not retained.
Market
Match Winner
Best verified price
4.500
Market reference
4.025 · 48 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
4.50 · edge 3.71%
Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.
