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Seattle Mariners -1.5 · Spread
Gates that did not pass
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
The screening row for this candidate was not retained.
The Seattle Mariners host the Athletics at T-Mobile Park on September 5, 2026, featuring a starting pitching matchup of George Kirby (4.19 ERA) against Jeffrey Springs (6.37 ERA). While an outlier quote of 2.150 at onexbet clears the acceptable threshold of 2.09 against a de-vigged fair price of 2.010, the opportunity is contested by a consensus median reference price of 1.930 across 35 operators and an isolated single price observation.
Primary case
Market context
What the price requires
Major uncertainty
The apparent edge depends entirely on an isolated outlier quote of 2.150 from onexbet captured in a single price sample, while the consensus of 35 tracked operators establishes a median reference price of 1.930 against a de-vigged fair price of 2.010.
Material findings and their support
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
The apparent edge depends entirely on an isolated outlier quote of 2.150 from onexbet captured in a single price sample, while the consensus of 35 tracked operators establishes a median reference price of 1.930 against a de-vigged fair price of 2.010.
Blocking questions
Why the market may simply be right