ENGINE ACTIVITY · RESEARCH CANDIDATE

Londrina vs Operario PR

Over 2.5 total goals · Total

Declined after researchCandidate · not a published position

Football · Brazil Série B · Starts 2026-09-06 14:00 UTC

NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION

This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.

Decision

Outcome: Declined after research
Decided: Sep 6 · 05:48 UTC
Main reason: Evidence grade below the lockable set (and 2 more)

Gates that did not pass

EvidenceNo source of a high enough tierFailed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed

Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.

Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceNo source of a high enough tierFailed
PriceRecorded price clears the minimum qualifying oddsPassed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed

Research

Evidence grade CAdversarial review · Blocking

Londrina EC vs Operario: Over 2.5 Goals Evaluation

Matchbook offers 2.440 on Over 2.5 goals compared to a 17-operator median of 2.180 and a de-vigged fair price of 2.354. However, the fundamental backing relies solely on aggregate seasonal top-scorer counts from a single Tier 3 source without tactical or tempo support, facing severe pushback against prevailing market consensus.

Primary case

Londrina's primary goal threats include Bruno Santos with 11 goals, Iago Teles with 3 goals, and Andre Luiz with 2 goals.
Operario's leading goal contributors are Gabriel Boschilia with 10 goals, Pablo with 5 goals, and Vinicius Diniz with 4 goals.

Major uncertainty

The proposition backs Over 2.50 goals in a competition known for low totals, yet the entire research case rests on a single Tier 3 source providing only top-scorer goal tallies, providing zero material evidence or tactical justification to contradict the 17-operator market median of 2.180.

Market context

Matchbook offers the current best price of 2.440 observed on 2026-09-06T05:38:28.609Z with no separate executable price recorded.
The market reference price is 2.180 across 17 operators, yielding a proportional two-way de-vigged fair price of 2.354 based on a 42.48% fair probability and 7.98% overround.
Dispersion among the 17 tracked operators is 11.93%, directly under the 12.00% allowable cap.
Market movement remains unknown due to null opening price and movement percentage over a single recorded sample.

What the price requires

A price of 2.440 requires a true probability of greater than 40.98% to clear break-even, and clearing the 2.44 threshold requires maintaining at least an edge buffer of 2.00% and uncertainty margin of 1.50% against the 2.354 de-vigged benchmark.
Overcoming the historical and league context favoring low-scoring outcomes, exemplified by Londrina's recent 0-0 Serie B draw against Juventude.

Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.

Candidate IDCAND-20260906-35e0fb24

Scan IDRUN-20260906-5682809f

Event IDEV-20260906-f0ea4c361627

Scan summary: Open the scan
Policy version: v1.2
Board day: 2026-09-06
Screened: not retained
Research completed: 2026-09-06 05:41 UTC
Decided: 2026-09-06 05:48 UTC

Decision

Outcome

Declined after research

Decided

Sep 6 · 05:48 UTC

Main reason

Evidence grade below the lockable set (and 2 more)

Gates that did not pass

EvidenceNo source of a high enough tierFailed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed

Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.

Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceNo source of a high enough tierFailed
PriceRecorded price clears the minimum qualifying oddsPassed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed

Research

Evidence grade CAdversarial review · Blocking

Londrina EC vs Operario: Over 2.5 Goals Evaluation

Primary case

Londrina's primary goal threats include Bruno Santos with 11 goals, Iago Teles with 3 goals, and Andre Luiz with 2 goals.

Operario's leading goal contributors are Gabriel Boschilia with 10 goals, Pablo with 5 goals, and Vinicius Diniz with 4 goals.

Major uncertainty

Market context

Matchbook offers the current best price of 2.440 observed on 2026-09-06T05:38:28.609Z with no separate executable price recorded.
The market reference price is 2.180 across 17 operators, yielding a proportional two-way de-vigged fair price of 2.354 based on a 42.48% fair probability and 7.98% overround.
Dispersion among the 17 tracked operators is 11.93%, directly under the 12.00% allowable cap.
Market movement remains unknown due to null opening price and movement percentage over a single recorded sample.

What the price requires

A price of 2.440 requires a true probability of greater than 40.98% to clear break-even, and clearing the 2.44 threshold requires maintaining at least an edge buffer of 2.00% and uncertainty margin of 1.50% against the 2.354 de-vigged benchmark.
Overcoming the historical and league context favoring low-scoring outcomes, exemplified by Londrina's recent 0-0 Serie B draw against Juventude.

Decision

Research

Londrina EC vs Operario: Over 2.5 Goals Evaluation

Decision

Research

Londrina EC vs Operario: Over 2.5 Goals Evaluation

Adversarial review

Why it entered research