Declined after researchCandidate · not a published position
Football · Bundesliga 2 - Germany · Starts
NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION
This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.
Decision
Outcome
Declined after research
Decided
Main reason
Evidence grade below the lockable set (and 3 more)
Gates that did not pass
EvidenceA material claim was not adequately supportedFailed
PriceRecorded price below the minimum qualifying oddsFailed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.
Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock window
Passed
EvidenceA material claim was not adequately supportedFailed
PriceRecorded price below the minimum qualifying oddsFailed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed
Research
Evidence grade CAdversarial review · Blocking
2. Bundesliga: Hertha BSC vs. 1. FC Magdeburg (2026-09-06)
Hertha BSC hosts 1. FC Magdeburg at the Olympiastadion in a top-five 2. Bundesliga matchup. A market price of 3.750 on betfair_ex_uk offers a theoretical 3.53% edge over the de-vigged fair price of 3.622, but material team news is critically compromised by two-year-old stale source data.
Primary case
Hertha BSC sits second in the 2. Bundesliga table with 9 points from three wins under manager Stefan Leitl, hosting fifth-placed 1. FC Magdeburg who have 6 points from three matches (CL-3e0839f5-d48, CL-a7888d6d-576).
Magdeburg enters the match with tracked form of 5 consecutive away wins and 7 consecutive scoring matches (CS-51726f75-dd4), having also won their most recent head-to-head encounter 1-0 (CL-e6522426-137).
Across tracked head-to-head fixtures, Magdeburg leads with 3 wins to Hertha's 2 wins and 1 draw (CS-13e328f3-817).
Major uncertainty
Material claims CL-2cfa8e79-0e0 and CL-5d52f199-f6f rely on source CS-13e328f3-817 from June 2024, leaving squad availability and injury information over two years out of date for a September 2026 match.
Market context
The best global price is observed at 3.750 on betfair_ex_uk as of 2026-09-06T06:21:56.386Z, though the best executable price is listed as null.
The median reference price across 54 operators is 3.350 with price dispersion of 11.94%.
De-vigging across three outcomes yields a fair decimal price of 3.622 (27.61% fair probability against an 8.11% overround), presenting a 3.53% theoretical edge at 3.750.
Price movement is unrecorded with an opening price of null and only one recorded sample.
What the price requires
The price of 3.750 requires an outcome probability higher than the break-even rate of 26.67% against a fair model estimate of 27.61%.
The evaluation requires Magdeburg's historical head-to-head and away scoring form to persist despite unconfirmed present squad health.
Material findings and their support6
Venue · for the caseThe match between Hertha Berlin and 1. FC Magdeburg is scheduled to take place at Olympiastadion in Berlin, Germany.Supported
Statistic · for the caseAhead of the fixture, Hertha Berlin sat second in 2. Bundesliga with 9 points from three wins, while 1. FC Magdeburg held fifth place with 6 points (2 wins, 1 loss).Supported
Statistic · for the caseIn their most recent head-to-head meeting prior to this match, Magdeburg defeated Hertha Berlin 1-0.Supported
Other · material · for the caseHertha BSC hosts 1. FC Magdeburg on September 6, 2026, entering the match in second place with 9 points from three matches under manager Stefan Leitl, while Magdeburg sits in fifth place with 6 points from three matches.Supported
Injury · material · against the caseLubambo Musonda is unavailable for 1. FC Magdeburg due to an Achilles tendon injury, with expected return in mid-October 2026.Stale
Availability · material · against the caseHertha BSC has no reported unavailable players heading into the match against Magdeburg.Stale
Adversarial review
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
Two of the three material research claims (CL-2cfa8e79-0e0 and CL-5d52f199-f6f) covering squad availability and injuries are explicitly marked STALE, relying on source CS-13e328f3-817 from June 7, 2024, which is over 70 million seconds (over 2 years) out of date for a September 2026 fixture.
Blocking questions and why the market may be right
Blocking questions
F-001 [STALE_EVIDENCE] Material injury claim CL-2cfa8e79-0e0 is marked STALE and relies on source CS-13e328f3-817 published over two years prior to the event. (refs: CL-2cfa8e79-0e0, CS-13e328f3-817)
F-002 [STALE_EVIDENCE] Material availability claim CL-5d52f199-f6f is marked STALE and relies on source CS-13e328f3-817 from June 2024. (refs: CL-5d52f199-f6f, CS-13e328f3-817)
Why the market may simply be right
The median market price across 54 operators is 3.350, suggesting that the broader market prices Magdeburg significantly shorter, and the single 3.750 quote on an exchange may reflect stale liquidity or an imminent price adjustment.
Why it entered research
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
The screening row for this candidate was not retained.
Market
Match Winner
Best verified price
3.750
Market reference
3.400 · 54 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
3.79 · edge 2.54%
Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.
