This candidate passed every gate and was locked as GL-20260906-002. The position record is the immutable, committed statement; this page is the research and decision trail behind it.
Decision
Outcome
Published
Decided
Main reason
Every gate passed.
Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.
Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceMaterial claims supported by enough distinct sourcesPassed
PriceRecorded price clears the minimum qualifying oddsPassed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyNo unresolved conflict or blocking questionPassed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review raised no blocking objectionPassed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed
Research
Evidence grade BAdversarial review · Low
Central Córdoba (SE) vs. Independiente - Clausura 2026 Value Assessment
Assessment of Central Córdoba hosting Independiente in Zona A of the Clausura 2026 at Estadio Único Madre de Ciudades. An observed price of 3.900 at unibet_se clears the calculated acceptable price threshold of 3.880 against a 40-operator consensus reference of 3.500.
Primary case
Both Central Córdoba and Independiente report no confirmed injuries or suspensions heading into the match under managers Sebastián Domínguez and Jadson Viera.
Central Córdoba has logged 16 points (4 wins, 4 draws, 8 losses) through 16 league matches, while Independiente has earned 24 points (6 wins, 6 draws, 4 losses).
The best global decimal price of 3.900 reflects an edge of 4.28% over the de-vigged fair price of 3.740, clearing the required threshold of 3.880 calculated with a 2.00% edge buffer and 1.50% uncertainty margin.
Major uncertainty
The recorded price of 3.900 sits just above the acceptable threshold of 3.880, while dispersion across 40 operators is 11.43% (close to the 12.00% maximum limit) with only a single observation snapshot recorded 15.8 hours before kickoff.
Market context
The consensus median across 40 bookmakers stands at 3.500, de-vigging to a fair price of 3.740 (26.74% fair probability with a 6.85% overround).
The best recorded decimal price of 3.900 was offered by unibet_se in Europe, while best executable pricing remains unavailable.
Dispersion across the 40 operators is measured at 11.43%, remaining below the 12.00% policy ceiling.
Market tracking currently reflects a single observation sample with no opening price or directional movement recorded.
What the price requires
Requires Central Córdoba's true win probability to exceed the fair threshold of 26.74%, compared to the 25.64% implied by the 3.900 quote.
Requires Central Córdoba to overcome an adverse recent head-to-head record, having lost 3 and won only 1 of their last 5 fixtures against Independiente, including a 2-0 loss on February 28, 2026.
Material findings and their support7
Venue · for the caseThe match will be played at Estadio Único Madre de Ciudades in Santiago del Estero, with Andrés Gariano as referee.Supported
Availability · for the caseCentral Córdoba has no confirmed injuries or suspensions heading into the match.Supported
Availability · for the caseIndependiente has no confirmed injuries or suspensions reported for the match.Supported
Line-up · for the caseSebastián Domínguez manages Central Córdoba, while Jadson Viera leads Independiente.Supported
Statistic · for the caseIndependiente won the previous meeting against Central Córdoba 2-0 on February 28, 2026, and has won three of the last five recorded head-to-head fixtures (with one draw and one Central Córdoba win).Supported
Other · material · for the caseCentral Córdoba (SE) and Independiente will face each other at Estadio Único Madre de Ciudades, refereed by Andrés Gariano.Supported
Other · material · for the caseCentral Córdoba vs. Independiente is scheduled as a Zona A Clausura 2026 fixture kicking off at 17:00 local time.Supported
Adversarial review
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
The recorded price of 3.900 sits just above the acceptable threshold of 3.880, while dispersion across 40 operators is 11.43% (close to the 12.00% maximum limit) with only a single observation snapshot recorded 15.8 hours before kickoff.
Blocking questions and why the market may be right
Why the market may simply be right
Independiente has historical head-to-head superiority and 40 operators establish a median price of 3.500 for Central Córdoba, suggesting the fair decimal price of 3.740 correctly positions Central Córdoba as substantial underdogs.
Why it entered research
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
Enough operators for a market reference
Price inside the freshness limit
Price above the de-vigged fair price
Operators disagree on the price
Market
Match Winner
Best verified price
3.900
Market reference
3.500 · 40 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
3.86 · edge 4.78%
Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.
