Declined after researchCandidate · not a published position
Football · Ligue 1 - France · Starts
NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION
This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.
Decision
Outcome
Declined after research
Decided
Main reason
Evidence grade below the lockable set (and 1 more)
Gates that did not pass
PriceRecorded price below the minimum qualifying oddsFailed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.
Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceMaterial claims supported by enough distinct sourcesPassed
PriceRecorded price below the minimum qualifying odds
Angers vs Rennes: Over 3 total goals researched 6 September 2026, Declined after research | GLINTARY
Failed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review raised no blocking objectionPassed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed
Research
Evidence grade B-Adversarial review · Medium
Angers SCO vs. Stade Rennais: Market Edge Analysis & Match Overview
Stade Rennais visit Angers SCO at Stade Raymond-Kopa following high-scoring opening fixtures, with in-form striker Estéban Lepaul scoring 3 goals in 2 matches. While Coolbet offers an outlier price of 2.040 against a consensus median reference price of 1.890, the proposition relies strictly on Tier 3 sources and clears the required hurdle by a razor-thin 0.010 margin.
Primary case
Rennes opened their Ligue 1 campaign with open, high-scoring matches: a 2-2 draw with Paris Saint-Germain and a 3-2 win against Le Mans (CL-f3c8d093-8c3, CS-6bd614ef-45e).
In-form Rennes forward Estéban Lepaul has netted 3 goals across the opening 2 fixtures, supported by Adrien Thomasson with 2 assists (CL-b64708f1-171, CS-521645d8-7bc).
Rennes has faced defensive instability with goalkeeper Brice Samba managing a muscle injury and Nicolas Lemaitre deputising in goal (CL-f3301aa2-484).
Angers midfielder Haris Belkebla is ruled out due to a thigh injury, and Louis Mouton remains doubtful with a knee issue (CL-5a2b1ebb-3f5, CL-50c47efb-5c4).
Major uncertainty
The proposition fails deterministic quality standards with evidence_grade_lockable set to false because all supporting material claims rely exclusively on Tier 3 sources without any Tier 1 or Tier 2 corroboration.
Market context
The best global price is quoted at 2.040 by Coolbet in Europe (OE-1808a4604b556f50), while no executable price is currently designated.
The 5-operator median reference price is 1.890; a two-way proportional de-vig sets the fair decimal price at 1.959 (51.04% fair probability, 3.67% overround).
Incorporating a 2.00% edge buffer and 1.50% uncertainty margin under policy v1.0 establishes an acceptable hurdle price of 2.030, which the current 2.040 price marginally clears.
Price dispersion across the 5 sampled operators is 7.94%, and market movement trajectory remains unquantified due to having only 1 recorded observation.
What the price requires
The 2.040 market price requires an implied outcome probability above 49.02% to yield positive expected value against the calculated fair probability of 51.04%.
The price requires Coolbet's 7.94% dispersion to represent a slow-moving, exploitable market lag rather than an unadjusted liability or sharp contrary action.
The thesis requires early-season high-scoring profiles (Rennes 5 goals scored, 4 conceded in 2 matches) to hold true in an away fixture at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
Material findings and their support7
Injury · for the caseAngers midfielder Haris Belkebla is ruled out due to a thigh injury / dead leg.Supported
Injury · for the caseAngers midfielder Louis Mouton is doubtful due to a knee injury.Supported
Injury · material · for the caseRennes goalkeeper Brice Samba has been dealing with an injury/muscle issue, with Nicolas Lemaitre featuring in goal.Supported
Venue · for the caseThe match takes place at Stade Raymond-Kopa in Angers.Supported
Statistic · material · for the caseRennes opened their Ligue 1 campaign with high-scoring fixtures: a 2-2 draw with Paris Saint-Germain and a 3-2 victory over Le Mans.Supported
Statistic · for the caseAngers opened their season with a 2-0 defeat against Lille before defeating Auxerre 3-1.Supported
Statistic · material · for the caseRennes forward Estéban Lepaul has scored 3 goals in his opening 2 matches of the season.Supported
Adversarial review
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
The proposition fails deterministic quality standards with evidence_grade_lockable set to false; all supporting material claims rely exclusively on Tier 3 sources without any Tier 1 or Tier 2 verification.
Blocking questions and why the market may be right
Why the market may simply be right
Consensus bookmakers clustering around a 1.890 median may have accurately priced the defensive and tactical realities of an away trip to Stade Raymond-Kopa.
Coolbet's 7.94% outlier dispersion may reflect slow updating rather than a genuine plus-EV pricing error.
Why it entered research
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
The screening row for this candidate was not retained.
Market
Total
Best verified price
1.980
Market reference
1.890 · 5 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
2.03 · edge 1.07%
Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.
