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← All candidatesEngine ActivityThis scan
Over 4.5 total goals · Total
Gates that did not pass
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
An edge of 4.16% is identified at Matchbook at 2.480 against a market reference of 2.230, but exchange commission friction and missing market selection details introduce critical execution barriers.
Primary case
Market context
What the price requires
Major uncertainty
Standard exchange commissions on Matchbook net winnings degrade the 2.480 price below the 2.470 threshold, eliminating the theoretical edge.
Material findings and their support
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
The best price of 2.480 is sourced from Matchbook (a betting exchange) and barely clears the acceptable threshold of 2.470; standard exchange commissions (2% to 4%) on net winnings will immediately degrade the realized price to between 2.450 and 2.460, breaching the required threshold and eliminating the calculated 4.16% edge.
Blocking questions
Why the market may simply be right