Declined after researchCandidate · not a published position
Football · Serie A - Italy · Starts
NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION
This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.
Decision
Outcome
Declined after research
Decided
Main reason
Best price too far above the market reference to be believed
Gates that did not pass
PriceBest price too far above the market reference to be believedFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.
Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceMaterial claims supported by enough distinct sourcesPassed
PriceBest price too far above the market reference to be believedFailed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)
Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyNo unresolved conflict or blocking questionPassed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review raised no blocking objectionPassed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed
Research
Evidence grade BAdversarial review · Low
Bologna vs Sassuolo: Away Price Discrepancy Against Roster Depletion
Pointsbetau offers an outlier decimal price of 4.300 on Sassuolo against a 62-operator market consensus reference of 3.870 and a fair value of 4.096. While Bologna has suffered back-to-back league defeats without scoring and misses Riccardo Orsolini, Sassuolo faces severe structural headwinds from five concurrent injuries and shorter rest following a midweek cup fixture.
Primary case
Bologna has started Serie A with two losses and zero points, averaging 0 goals per game despite generating 1.54 xG (CS-78e3f52a-1f5).
Bologna will be without key winger Riccardo Orsolini due to a left thigh flexor muscle injury (CL-02eda90b-9b9), alongside the absence of midfielder Oussama El Azzouzi (CL-3be0a0e5-dfa).
Sassuolo has demonstrated positive underlying offensive metrics through two league matches, generating 1.93 xG per game with 15 shots on target and 3 total goals scored (CS-78e3f52a-1f5, CS-e655ff90-3ac, CS-e4f0f530-456).
The market median price of 3.870 implies a de-vigged fair price of 4.096, creating mathematical surplus against pointsbetau's available 4.300 quote.
Major uncertainty
Sassuolo's compound disadvantage of missing five key rotation players while coping with a two-day rest deficit after midweek cup action could justify the market's heavy discounting of their away win probability.
Market context
The best global decimal price of 4.300 is offered by pointsbetau in Australia, clearing the acceptable threshold of 4.24.
A broad reference sample of 62 operators sets the median price at 3.870 with an 11.11% price dispersion across books.
Line movement velocity is unknown as opening prices are null across a single recorded observation.
What the price requires
The 4.300 price requires Sassuolo's true win probability to exceed approximately 23.26% to break even.
It requires Sassuolo to withstand a significant squad rotation without degrading their early-season 1.93 xG output away at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
It assumes pointsbetau's 4.300 quote is an actionable pricing inefficiency rather than an unadjusted line awaiting heavy market correction.
Material findings and their support7
Injury · material · for the caseBologna winger Riccardo Orsolini is sidelined due to a flexor muscle problem in his left thigh suffered against Atalanta.Supported
Injury · for the caseBologna midfielder Oussama El Azzouzi is unavailable due to a thigh injury.Supported
Availability · for the caseBologna defender Nicolò Casale is doubtful ahead of the match.Supported
Injury · material · for the caseSassuolo players Daniel Boloca, Ismaël Koné, Sebastian Walukiewicz, Fali Candé, and Edoardo Pieragnolo are unavailable due to injuries.Supported
Suspension · for the caseThere are no suspensions reported for either Bologna or Sassuolo for this match.Supported
Rest · material · for the caseSassuolo played a midweek Coppa Italia match against Frosinone on 02 September 2026, giving them shorter rest than Bologna, who last played on 31 August 2026.Supported
Venue · for the caseThe match is taking place at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Bologna.Supported
Adversarial review
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
Sassuolo enters this away fixture facing severe squad depletion with five injured players (CL-918b102f-e98) and a rest deficit following their midweek Coppa Italia match (CL-bb560248-cbe), suggesting that the market consensus price of 3.870 and pointsbetau's 4.300 quote may simply reflect appropriate discounting of their away win probability.
Blocking questions and why the market may be right
Why the market may simply be right
With 62 operators establishing a median price of 3.870, the market's skepticism of an away win is heavily grounded in confirmed team absences and fixture congestion for Sassuolo.
Why it entered research
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
The screening row for this candidate was not retained.
Market
Match Winner
Best verified price
4.300
Market reference
3.800 · 62 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
4.18 · edge 6.67%
Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.
