This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. The case survived; only the price or recoverable data failed. It re-enters when the stated condition is met.
Decision
Outcome
Watchlist
Decided
Main reason
Recorded price below the minimum qualifying odds
What has to change
Re-enters if the best verified price reaches 2.43 (last seen 2.400).
Gates that did not pass
PriceRecorded price below the minimum qualifying oddsFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.
Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceMaterial claims supported by enough distinct sourcesPassed
PriceRecorded price below the minimum qualifying oddsFailed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyNo unresolved conflict or blocking questionPassed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review raised no blocking objectionPassed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed
Research
Evidence grade BAdversarial review · Low
Parma vs Monza: Market Edge Analysis on Over 2.5 Goals
Matchbook offers a quote of 2.440 on Over 2.5 goals for Parma against Monza at Stadio Ennio Tardini on 6 September 2026, edging above the 2.430 acceptable threshold against a 2.200 market median. While Monza conceded seven goals in their first two fixtures, Parma has scored zero goals in Serie A this season and both sides carry substantial midfield and attacking absences.
Primary case
Monza has shown severe defensive vulnerability in their opening fixtures, conceding seven goals in two Serie A matches (a 4-1 defeat to Inter and a 3-2 defeat to Udinese) while scoring three goals (CL-fa10fba3-0aa, CS-6f152d22-4af).
The best available price of 2.440 at Matchbook clears the required threshold of 2.430, which incorporates a 2.00% edge buffer and a 1.50% uncertainty margin above the fair decimal price of 2.341 derived from a 21-operator median reference of 2.200.
Major uncertainty
Parma has failed to score in their opening two Serie A matches while key creative and attacking personnel are injured, directly challenging the Over 2.5 goals thesis on an edge that clears the acceptable threshold by only 0.010 (2.440 vs 2.430).
Market context
The consensus reference price sits at 2.200 across 21 tracked operators, yielding a de-vigged fair decimal price of 2.341 (42.71% fair probability with an overround of 6.43%).
The available price of 2.440 provides an observed clearance of 0.010 above the acceptable price threshold of 2.430.
Operator price dispersion is 10.91% across 21 books, but price trajectory is unknown as only a single observation is recorded with no historical opening price.
What the price requires
The position requires the true match probability of Over 2.5 goals to exceed the fair de-vigged benchmark of 42.71% (decimal 2.341).
It requires Monza's early defensive concession rate to materialize against a Parma attack that has yet to register a goal in Serie A.
Material findings and their support8
Venue · for the caseThe match will take place at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Parma on 6 September 2026.Supported
Injury · material · for the caseParma midfielder Hans Nicolussi Caviglia is ruled out with an injury (pubalgia/hernia).Supported
Injury · material · for the caseParma midfielder Adrián Bernabé is doubtful or ruled out due to physical discomfort.Supported
Injury · material · for the caseMonza captain Matteo Pessina is sidelined due to a knee injury.Supported
Injury · material · for the caseMonza forward Patrick Ciurria is ruled out with an injury.Supported
Injury · material · for the caseMonza forward Gustavo Varela has an injury concern (muscle/thigh).Supported
Statistic · material · for the caseMonza conceded seven goals in their first two Serie A games (4-1 loss to Inter and 3-2 loss to Udinese).Supported
Statistic · material · for the caseParma failed to score in their opening two Serie A matches, losing both matches and conceding three goals.Supported
Adversarial review
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
Parma has failed to score in their opening two Serie A matches while key creative and attacking personnel are injured, directly challenging the Over 2.5 goals thesis on an edge that clears the acceptable threshold by only 0.010 (2.440 vs 2.430).
Blocking questions and why the market may be right
Why the market may simply be right
The 21-operator market consensus at 2.200 median may already accurately price the low-scoring tendencies and offensive absences of both sides.
Why it entered research
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
The screening row for this candidate was not retained.
Market
Total
Best verified price
2.400
Market reference
2.200 · 21 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
2.43 · edge 2.52%
Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.
