This candidate passed every gate and was locked as GL-20260906-006. The position record is the immutable, committed statement; this page is the research and decision trail behind it.
Decision
Outcome
Published
Decided
Main reason
Every gate passed.
Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.
Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceMaterial claims supported by enough distinct sourcesPassed
PriceRecorded price clears the minimum qualifying oddsPassed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyNo unresolved conflict or blocking questionPassed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review raised no blocking objectionPassed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed
Research
Evidence grade B+Adversarial review · Low
St Johnstone vs Hibernian: Defensive Depletion for Visitors Creates Opportunity at McDiarmid Park
Hibernian face St Johnstone with a compromised backline due to Jack Iredale's suspension and an injury doubt surrounding Jordan Obita, while Rocky Bushiri remains sidelined. At odds of 3.150 against a fair price estimate of 3.017, St Johnstone offer value despite questions surrounding the loan eligibility of recent signing Josh Campbell against his parent club.
Primary case
Hibernian enter the fixture missing key defensive personnel: centre-back Jack Iredale is suspended following a red card, Jordan Obita is doubtful after exiting injured after 29 minutes in his last outing, and Rocky Bushiri is sidelined with an Achilles tendon injury (CL-ad7ab3c7-215, CL-88b86a1b-7ab, CL-3d658765-382).
St Johnstone report no fresh injury or suspension concerns entering the match and have reinforced their squad by signing midfielders Joel Cotterill and Josh Campbell on transfer deadline day (CL-edb3fef8-857, CL-bd93ba53-208, CL-e3c03b29-b98).
Through four Scottish Premiership matches, St Johnstone have accumulated 4 points (1W, 1D, 2L, 6 GF, 7 GA), trailing Hibernian on 6 points (2W, 0D, 2L, 6 GF, 7 GA), making the fundamental team gap narrower than market pricing implies (CS-44d2e704-f86).
Major uncertainty
Deadline signing Josh Campbell is likely contractually barred from playing against his parent club Hibernian under competition loan rules, muting the anticipated midfield reinforcement impact.
Market context
The best global decimal price for St Johnstone is 3.150 at sportsbet, exceeding the acceptable threshold of 3.130 (inclusive of a 2.00% edge buffer and 1.50% uncertainty margin) to deliver a 4.41% edge.
The median reference price across 53 operators is 2.820, which translates after proportional de-vigging to a fair decimal price of 3.017 (33.15% implied win probability) under a 6.98% overround.
Dispersion across 53 operators is relatively wide at 11.70%, approaching the 12.00% policy upper limit.
Price history is limited to 1 sample, leaving directional line movement and opening odds unobserved.
What the price requires
At 3.150, the market requires St Johnstone to win this fixture at least 31.75% of the time to break even, against a consensus de-vigged fair win probability of 33.15%.
Material findings and their support12
Suspension · material · for the caseHibernian centre-back Jack Iredale is suspended for the match against St Johnstone following a red card received in the Edinburgh derby on Thursday.Supported
Injury · material · for the caseHibernian defender Jordan Obita is a doubt for the match against St Johnstone after being forced off with an injury after 29 minutes in the previous fixture.Supported
Injury · for the caseHibernian defender Rocky Bushiri has been sidelined with an Achilles tendon injury, leaving him doubtful or unavailable.Supported
Availability · material · for the caseMidfielder Josh Campbell joined St Johnstone on loan from Hibernian on September 3, 2026, for the remainder of the 2026/27 campaign.Supported
Availability · for the caseSt Johnstone signed midfielder Joel Cotterill from Swansea City on transfer deadline day.Supported
Availability · for the caseNew Hibernian loanee right-back Alex Williams is confirmed available for selection by manager David Gray.Supported
Availability · for the caseNew Hibernian signing Marko Ivezic's availability depends on whether his work permit is processed in time.Supported
Injury · for the caseSt Johnstone have reported no fresh injury or suspension concerns entering early September.
Adversarial review
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
The primary qualitative case rests on Hibernian squad disruption and St Johnstone's deadline-day recruitment; however, loanee Josh Campbell is typically ineligible to face his parent club under competition regulations, and the best price (3.150) sits near the upper dispersion threshold against a market median of 2.820.
Blocking questions and why the market may be right
Why the market may simply be right
Consensus across 53 books places St Johnstone at 2.820, suggesting sportsbet at 3.150 may simply be slow to update or shading recreational action rather than mispricing fundamental team strength.
Why it entered research
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
The screening row for this candidate was not retained.
Market
Match Winner
Best verified price
3.150
Market reference
2.850 · 53 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
3.15 · edge 3.69%
Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.
Venue · for the caseThe match between St Johnstone and Hibernian is scheduled to be played at McDiarmid Park in Perth.Supported
Other · material · for the caseHibernian midfielder Josh Campbell has joined St Johnstone on loan for the remainder of the 2026/27 campaign.Supported
Other · material · for the caseSt Johnstone signed midfielders Josh Campbell and Joel Cotterill to strengthen their squad.Supported
Other · material · for the caseHibernian centre-back Iredale is suspended for the trip to St Johnstone, while Jordan Obita is doubtful with an injury.Supported
