Declined after researchCandidate · not a published position
Football · EPL · Starts
NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION
This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.
Decision
Outcome
Declined after research
Decided
Main reason
Evidence grade below the lockable set
Gates that did not pass
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.
Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceMaterial claims supported by enough distinct sourcesPassed
PriceRecorded price clears the minimum qualifying oddsPassed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review raised no blocking objectionPassed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed
Research
Evidence grade B-Adversarial review · Medium
Everton vs Manchester United: Outlier Pricing at Smarkets Against Wider Market Consensus
An outlier price of 2.160 is available on Manchester United with Smarkets, compared to a 64-operator market median reference price of 1.950 (de-vigged fair price 2.058). However, the primary case is undermined by severe data integrity issues regarding the odds evidence identifier and exclusive reliance on Tier 3 sources for critical squad availability claims.
Primary case
The market offers an apparent pricing edge with Smarkets quoting Manchester United at 2.160, which sits above the de-vigged fair price of 2.058 calculated from the 64-operator median reference price of 1.950.
Everton have gone 4 consecutive home league matches without a win against Manchester United (CS-41198a1d-d89).
Manchester United receive squad reinforcement as Luke Shaw and Mason Mount have returned to full training and are available for selection (CL-111b89f8-da5).
Manager Michael Carrick is targeting consecutive Premier League victories for the first time in the 2026/27 campaign (CL-c121e790-f86).
Major uncertainty
The best global price of 2.160 from Smarkets references odds evidence record OE-e44765f9761b0de5, which is missing from the tracked repository, while all material squad availability claims rest entirely on unverified Tier 3 sources.
Market context
The best global price of 2.160 is observed with Smarkets in the UK region via record OE-e44765f9761b0de5.
The market reference price across 64 operators is 1.950, producing a de-vigged fair decimal price of 2.058 with an overround of 5.52% and a fair win probability of 48.60%.
Price dispersion across the 64 tracked operators is 10.77%.
Price movement history contains only one recorded sample at 2.160, leaving the opening price and trend percentage unrecorded.
What the price requires
The 2.160 price implies an implied probability of approximately 46.30%, requiring Manchester United's true win likelihood to exceed the market median consensus of 48.60%.
The position requires Manchester United to compensate for reported injuries to Manuel Ugarte (CL-08ec6df0-4c0) and Amad Diallo (CL-102efe4f-e04), as well as doubts regarding Matthijs de Ligt and Tom Heaton (CL-69f8f7a2-da2).
Material findings and their support9
Injury · material · for the caseCarlos Baleba is ruled out for Manchester United due to an ankle injury.Supported
Injury · material · for the caseManuel Ugarte is ruled out for Manchester United due to injury.Supported
Injury · material · for the caseAmad Diallo is ruled out for Manchester United due to an ankle injury.Supported
Injury · material · for the caseMatthijs de Ligt and Tom Heaton are injury doubts/unavailable for Manchester United.Supported
Availability · material · for the caseLuke Shaw and Mason Mount have returned to full training and are available for selection for Manchester United.Supported
Injury · for the caseChristian Norgaard is Everton's primary injury doubt/absentee heading into the match.Supported
Venue · for the caseThe match between Everton and Manchester United is scheduled at Hill Dickinson Stadium on Sunday, 6 September 2026.Supported
Other · for the caseMichael Carrick is targeting consecutive Premier League victories for the first time in the 2026/27 campaign as Manchester United travel to Everton.Supported
Other · against the caseJack Grealish is sidelined with a foot injury and Jake O'Brien is suspended, while Seamus Coleman is fully fit and available for Everton against Manchester United.Stale
Adversarial review
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
The best global price of 2.160 from Smarkets references odds evidence record OE-e44765f9761b0de5, which is missing from the packet's odds_evidence_ids repository, and the evidence grade is B- with deterministic check evidence_grade_lockable evaluated as false due to exclusive reliance on Tier 3 sources.
Blocking questions and why the market may be right
Why the market may simply be right
The median reference price across 64 operators is 1.950 (fair de-vig 2.058), meaning the broader market assesses Manchester United's true win probability significantly lower than the outlier 2.160 quote implies.
Why it entered research
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
The screening row for this candidate was not retained.
Market
Match Winner
Best verified price
2.160
Market reference
1.950 · 64 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
2.13 · edge 5.16%
Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.
