GLINTARY
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GLINTARY

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Baseball · MLB ·

San Diego Padres vs New York Yankees

Under 7.5 total runs · Total

Declined after researchCandidate CAND-20260905-ed64aa8a
NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION
This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.

Decision

Outcome
Declined after research
Main reason
Dispersion implausible (and 4 more)
Decided
Policy
v1.1

Gates that did not pass

  • EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
  • PriceDispersion implausibleFailed
  • FreshnessNewest supporting source older than the limitFailed
  • UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
  • Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)
  1. Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
  2. EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
  3. PriceDispersion implausibleFailed
  4. Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
  5. FreshnessNewest supporting source older than the limitFailed
  6. UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
  7. Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
  8. DuplicationNo existing position on this eventPassed
  9. PresentationPresentation compliantPassed

Why it entered research

Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.

  • Enough operators for a market reference
  • Price inside the freshness limit
  • Price above the de-vigged fair price
  • Operators disagree on the price
Screened
Market
Total
Best verified price
2.070
Market reference
1.840 · 11 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
1.99 · edge 7.81%

Research

Evidence grade CAdversarial review · High

Research Position Note

This position note reviews the current market pricing and operational risks based on available multi-operator data and red team objections.

Primary case

  • The current best global price is offered by bovada.

Market context

  • The market reference price is established as the median across multiple operators.
  • Movement data is limited to a single sample without an opening price comparison.
  • The dispersion percentage across the operators reflects moderate variance in the market.

What the price requires

  • Assuming that the price offered by bovada at 2.050 is fully executable and available in sufficient size.
  • Assuming that the 12.02 percent dispersion reflects normal market inefficiency rather than a stale quote or bad line at bovada.

Major uncertainty

The target price of 2.050 relies on a single outlier operator (bovada) that is significantly higher than the median market reference price of 1.830, indicating that the price may be stale, limited by stake restrictions, or representative of a sharp disagreement by the broader market.

Adversarial review

The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.

The target price of 2.050 relies on a single outlier operator (bovada) that is significantly higher than the median market reference price of 1.830, indicating that the price may be stale, limited by stake restrictions, or representative of a sharp disagreement by the broader market.

Blocking questions

  • Is the 2.050 price at bovada still actively available and executable at the required stake size?
  • Why is there a 12.02 percent dispersion across the 11 operators, and does the market reference median of 1.830 represent a more accurate consensus?
  • How long has the bovada price been sitting at 2.050 without movement or correction?

Why the market may simply be right

  • The median market reference price of 1.830 established across 11 operators suggests that the broader market consensus views the true probability differently than the single best global price of 2.050.