Accrington Stanley vs Crawley Town

Crawley Town to win · Match Winner

Declined after researchCandidate CAND-20260905-e3350c47

NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION

This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.

Decision

Outcome: Declined after research
Main reason: Dispersion implausible (and 3 more)
Decided: 2026-09-05 09:56 UTC
Policy: v1.1

Gates that did not pass

EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
PriceDispersion implausibleFailed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed

Full gate trace (9 gates)

Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
PriceDispersion implausibleFailed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
DuplicationNo existing position on this eventPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed

Why it entered research

Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.

The screening row for this candidate was not retained.

Screened: not retained
Market: Match Winner
Best verified price: 3.450
Market reference: 3.050 · 8 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds: 3.41 · edge 4.77%

Research

Evidence grade CAdversarial review · Blocking

Crawley Town vs. Accrington Stanley: Theoretical Edge with No Executable Price and Unverified Evidence

BetRivers offers an outlier global price of 3.450 against a de-vigged fair price of 3.293 and a market median of 3.050 across 8 operators. However, there is no executable price currently available, market dispersion is high at 13.11%, and all supporting match performance claims remain unsupported.

Primary case

The best global price of 3.450 offered by BetRivers theoretically clears the policy v1.0 acceptable threshold of 3.41, representing a calculated 4.77% edge over the de-vigged fair price of 3.293.
The calculated fair probability stands at 30.37% with an overround of 7.96% based on a proportional three-way calculation across 8 tracked operators.
All historical performance claims (CL-b7d45400-a9d, CL-148828ca-276, and CL-09fad11d-2a2) regarding Crawley Town and Accrington Stanley results are currently unsupported by verified sources, leaving no validated qualitative or statistical edge.

Market context

The best global price is 3.450 at BetRivers, but no executable price is currently available (best_executable is null).
The market reference price is 3.050 based on the median across 8 operators, indicating a substantial gap between consensus and the 3.450 quote.
Price dispersion across the 8 operators is 13.11%, showing notable disagreement across books.