CD Eldense vs Mallorca

CD Eldense to win · Match Winner

Declined after researchCandidate CAND-20260905-c19cf2e5

NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION

This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.

Decision

Outcome: Declined after research
Main reason: A blocking open question remains (and 2 more)
Decided: 2026-09-05 18:06 UTC
Policy: v1.2

Gates that did not pass

PriceBest price too far above the market reference to be believedFailed
UncertaintyA blocking open question remainsFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed

Full gate trace (9 gates)

Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceMaterial claims supported by enough distinct sourcesPassed
PriceBest price too far above the market reference to be believedFailed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyA blocking open question remainsFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed

Why it entered research

Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.

The screening row for this candidate was not retained.

Screened: not retained
Market: Match Winner
Best verified price: 4.000
Market reference: 3.550 · 52 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds: 4.01 · edge 3.49%

Research

Evidence grade BAdversarial review · High

CD Eldense vs RCD Mallorca: Apparent Exchange Value Against Tight Consensus

A potential pricing discrepancy exists around the LaLiga Hypermotion fixture between CD Eldense and RCD Mallorca on 5 September 2026. While Smarkets shows a top quote of 4.100 against a de-vigged fair price of 3.905 (25.61% fair probability), the consensus median across 52 sampled operators sits at 3.600, with no executable liquidity currently confirmed and tracking limited to a single historical point.

Primary case

The best market price observed is 4.100 on Smarkets in the UK, compared to a proportional de-vigged fair price of 3.905 derived from a 52-operator market consensus (claim CL-3d4f0c42-408, market context).
CD Eldense enters the match at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Pepico Amat with a fully fit squad and no reported injuries or suspensions (claims CL-375bbb56-658, CL-666bd3c9-12c, CL-b2810cdd-dee).
RCD Mallorca is confirmed to be without midfielder/defender Jan Salas due to a cruciate ligament injury (claims CL-12609fc2-ac2, CL-b2810cdd-dee).

Market context

The market reference price across 52 sampled bookmakers is 3.600, representing a tight consensus with an operator dispersion of 13.89%.
Accounting for an 8.47% overround across the three match outcomes, the proportional de-vigged fair price is 3.905 (fair probability of 25.61%).
Price history is extremely sparse, consisting of a single historical tracking observation at 3.800 prior to the 4.100 observation, with no recorded opening price.