GLINTARY
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GLINTARY

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Football · Premier League - Russia ·

Kryliya Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar

Kryliya Sovetov to win · Match Winner

Declined after researchCandidate CAND-20260905-a2c9ec4d
NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION
This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.

Decision

Outcome
Declined after research
Main reason
Evidence grade below the lockable set (and 4 more)
Decided
Policy
v1.1

Gates that did not pass

  • EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
  • PriceRecorded price below the minimum qualifying oddsFailed
  • FreshnessNewest supporting source older than the limitFailed
  • UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
  • Adversarial reviewAdversarial review raised a blocking questionFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)
  1. Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
  2. EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
  3. PriceRecorded price below the minimum qualifying oddsFailed
  4. Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
  5. FreshnessNewest supporting source older than the limitFailed
  6. UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
  7. Adversarial reviewAdversarial review raised a blocking questionFailed
  8. DuplicationNo existing position on this eventPassed
  9. PresentationPresentation compliantPassed

Why it entered research

Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.

  • Enough operators for a market reference
  • Price inside the freshness limit
  • Price above the de-vigged fair price
  • Operators disagree on the price
Screened
Market
Match Winner
Best verified price
4.400
Market reference
4.400 · 3 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
4.84 · edge -5.82%

Research

Evidence grade UNGRADEDAdversarial review · Low

Research Position Note

Analysis of the current market positioning reveals a price observed via Bovada standing above the market reference, supported by a moderate level of dispersion across a limited set of operators.

Primary case

  • The current best global price stands above the market reference, observed via Bovada with no opening movement data available.

Market context

  • The market reference price is determined using the median across multiple operators.
  • Movement details are currently unavailable as only a single sample point exists.
  • The market shows a moderate level of dispersion across the available operators.

What the price requires

  • Requires the single available sample point from Bovada to remain stable and executable.
  • Requires the median reference price to accurately reflect market consensus despite a small operator count.

Major uncertainty

The position relies entirely on a single sample point with no opening movement data, making it difficult to determine whether the price of 4.800 represents true mispricing or a temporary outlier in a thin market with only 3 operators.

Adversarial review

The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.

The position relies entirely on a single sample point with no opening movement data, making it difficult to determine whether the price of 4.800 represents true mispricing or a temporary outlier in a thin market with only 3 operators.

Blocking questions

  • Can execution be verified at the stated Bovada price given the lack of historical movement data?
  • Does the 3-operator median provide a robust enough reference baseline to support the edge calculation?

Why the market may simply be right

  • The moderate dispersion of 11.63% across only 3 operators may simply indicate high uncertainty or disagreement rather than a clear exploitable mispricing.