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Luis Felipe Dias to win · Moneyline
Gates that did not pass
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
The screening row for this candidate was not retained.
Matthieu Duclos makes his UFC promotional debut on home soil against Luis Felipe Dias at Accor Arena in Paris on September 5, 2026, with both fighters weighing in at 185 pounds. While market pricing presents an apparent 29.53% edge at 2.110 against a 1.520 median reference across 6 operators, the position is compromised by an extreme 38.82% operator dispersion, lack of price history, and the absence of a confirmed executable price.
Primary case
Market context
What the price requires
Major uncertainty
The best executable price is null and the 2.110 quote at betonlineag against a 1.520 median reference creates an extreme 38.82% operator dispersion, strongly pointing to an unfillable quote, inverted fighter odds, or a palpable pricing error.
Material findings and their support
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
No executable price exists (best_executable is null), and the 2.110 offer from betonlineag against a 1.520 median reference creates an extreme 38.82% dispersion across only 6 operators, strongly indicating a palpable pricing error, inverted fighter odds, or an unfillable quote.
Blocking questions
Why the market may simply be right