GLINTARY
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GLINTARY

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Boxing · Boxing ·

Taylor Bevan vs Emmet Brennan

Emmet Brennan to win · Moneyline

Declined after researchCandidate CAND-20260905-8aaf3bbf
NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION
This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.

Decision

Outcome
Declined after research
Main reason
Evidence grade below the lockable set (and 3 more)
Decided
Policy
v1.1

Gates that did not pass

  • EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
  • FreshnessConfirmed personnel information required and not yet publishedFailed
  • UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
  • Adversarial reviewAdversarial review raised a blocking questionFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)
  1. Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
  2. EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
  3. PriceRecorded price clears the minimum qualifying oddsPassed
  4. Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
  5. FreshnessConfirmed personnel information required and not yet publishedFailed
  6. UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
  7. Adversarial reviewAdversarial review raised a blocking questionFailed
  8. DuplicationNo existing position on this eventPassed
  9. PresentationPresentation compliantPassed

Why it entered research

Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.

  • Enough operators for a market reference
  • Price inside the freshness limit
  • Price above the de-vigged fair price
  • Operators disagree on the price
Screened
Market
Moneyline
Best verified price
4.300
Market reference
3.845 · 4 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
4.21 · edge 5.81%

Research

Evidence grade CAdversarial review · Low

Research Position Note

This research note evaluates the current market context and red team findings based on limited available data points and a small operator sample size.

Primary case

  • The current best available price is offered by a data provider via betus.

Market context

  • The market reference price is established using the median of operators method across multiple evaluated operators.
  • Movement tracking is limited to a single sample observation, so opening price movement details remain unknown.
  • The market exhibits a notable dispersion percentage across the evaluated operator count.

What the price requires

  • Requires the evaluated operator count of 4 and the median of operators method to accurately reflect the true market probability.

Major uncertainty

The position relies on a small operator sample size of 4, and movement tracking is limited to a single sample observation, leaving opening price movement details unknown.

Adversarial review

The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.

The position relies on a small operator sample size of 4, and movement tracking is limited to a single sample observation, leaving opening price movement details unknown.

Blocking questions

  • How does the historical movement of these 4 operators support a lock given that opening price movement details are unknown?
  • Does the 11.83 percent dispersion percentage reflect a genuine market inefficiency or merely normal divergence across a small sample of 4 operators?

Why the market may simply be right

  • The market exhibits a notable dispersion percentage across the evaluated operator count, which could suggest differing opinions or stale prices rather than a exploitable discrepancy.