GLINTARY
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GLINTARY

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Tennis · WTA US Open ·

Anastasia Potapova vs Amanda Anisimova

Anastasia Potapova to win · Moneyline

Declined after researchCandidate CAND-20260905-86a0ecd1
NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION
This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.

Decision

Outcome
Declined after research
Main reason
Evidence grade below the lockable set (and 4 more)
Decided
Policy
v1.1

Gates that did not pass

  • EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
  • PriceRecorded price outside the allowed odds bandFailed
  • FreshnessConfirmed personnel information required and not yet publishedFailed
  • UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
  • Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)
  1. Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
  2. EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
  3. PriceRecorded price outside the allowed odds bandFailed
  4. Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
  5. FreshnessConfirmed personnel information required and not yet publishedFailed
  6. UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
  7. Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
  8. DuplicationNo existing position on this eventPassed
  9. PresentationPresentation compliantPassed

Why it entered research

Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.

  • Enough operators for a market reference
  • Price inside the freshness limit
  • Price above the de-vigged fair price
  • Operators disagree on the price
Screened
Market
Moneyline
Best verified price
5.600
Market reference
5.200 · 11 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
5.68 · edge 2.13%

Research

Evidence grade CAdversarial review · Blocking

Market Price Evaluation Note

An evaluation of the current tennis market pricing across surveyed operators, highlighting outlier quotes, book dispersion, and structural data limitations.

Primary case

  • The best available price on offer is 4.980 in decimal terms from DraftKings US.
  • The median reference price across eight surveyed operators sits at 4.400 decimal.
  • A proportional two-way de-vig over two reference outcomes produces a fair probability of 21.43 percent, equivalent to a fair decimal price of 4.667.

Market context

  • The recorded edge is 6.71 percent against the acceptable threshold of 4.84 set by Policy v1.0.
  • Book dispersion across the eight surveyed operators stands at 13.18 percent.
  • Only a single price sample exists with no opening price or movement history captured.

What the price requires

  • The DraftKings quote of 4.980 must remain available and executable.
  • The true probability must align closer to the outlier quote than to the market median of 4.400.

Major uncertainty

The best available price of 4.980 is from a single outlier quote at DraftKings without any confirmation of executability, resting on a wide book dispersion of 13.18 percent and a sample size of exactly one observation with no historical movement context.

Adversarial review

The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.

The best available price of 4.980 is from a single outlier quote at DraftKings without any confirmation of executability, resting on a wide book dispersion of 13.18 percent and a sample size of exactly one observation with no historical movement context.

Blocking questions

  • Is the DraftKings quote of 4.980 actually executable at the stated stake requirements?
  • What explains the 13.18 percent dispersion across the eight surveyed operators?
  • Are there any unreported injuries, weather conditions, or news catalysts that justify a price divergence from the market median?

Why the market may simply be right

  • The wide book dispersion of 13.18 percent indicates significant disagreement or that the outlier quote is stale, meaning the median reference price or other books may be more accurate.
  • Without a confirmed executable price at the leading quote, the market may simply be correctly pricing the selection closer to the median reference price of 4.400.