GLINTARY
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GLINTARY

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Tennis · ATP US Open ·

Luciano Darderi vs Dane Sweeny

Dane Sweeny to win · Moneyline

Declined after researchCandidate CAND-20260905-84ca69c1
NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION
This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.

Decision

Outcome
Declined after research
Main reason
Evidence grade below the lockable set (and 4 more)
Decided
Policy
v1.1

Gates that did not pass

  • EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
  • PriceRecorded price below the minimum qualifying oddsFailed
  • FreshnessConfirmed personnel information required and not yet publishedFailed
  • UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
  • Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)
  1. Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
  2. EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
  3. PriceRecorded price below the minimum qualifying oddsFailed
  4. Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
  5. FreshnessConfirmed personnel information required and not yet publishedFailed
  6. UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
  7. Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
  8. DuplicationNo existing position on this eventPassed
  9. PresentationPresentation compliantPassed

Why it entered research

Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.

  • Enough operators for a market reference
  • Price inside the freshness limit
  • Price above the de-vigged fair price
  • Operators disagree on the price
Screened
Market
Moneyline
Best verified price
3.900
Market reference
3.870 · 11 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
4.19 · edge -3.63%

Research

Evidence grade B-Adversarial review · Blocking

Luciano Darderi Market Assessment

An evaluation of the current betting market surrounding Luciano Darderi shows a best global quote on FanDuel at 4.650, which sits noticeably above the eleven-operator median reference price of 4.100.

Primary case

  • The best available price in the surveyed market is the FanDuel line at 4.650 decimal.
  • A proportional two-way de-vig across reference outcomes yields a fair price of 4.333, implying a fair win probability of roughly twenty-three percent.
  • Luciano Darderi has shown notable achievements in recent months, including reaching a world ranking around No. 18 to No. 20 and claiming multiple titles over the preceding year.

Market context

  • The median of eleven operator prices sits at 4.100 decimal, representing a meaningful discount to the top available quote.
  • Dispersion across the contributing operators is reported at approximately thirteen and four tenths of a percent, indicating a wide spread.
  • Movement history is unavailable as only a single observation exists with no opening price or timestamp recorded.

What the price requires

  • Requires the FanDuel quote of 4.650 to be genuinely executable rather than a stale or phantom outlier.
  • Requires the true win probability to exceed the de-viger fair probability threshold after accounting for edge buffers and uncertainty margins.

Major uncertainty

The best global quote of 4.650 is an unconfirmed outlier sitting significantly above the median reference price of 4.100 and the fair price of 4.333, with no executable confirmation and a wide dispersion of 13.41% across eleven operators, meaning the price may be stale or unbettable.

Adversarial review

The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.

The best global quote of 4.650 is an unconfirmed outlier sitting significantly above the median reference price of 4.100 and the fair price of 4.333, with no executable confirmation and a wide dispersion of 13.41% across eleven operators, meaning the price may be stale or unbettable.

Blocking questions

  • Can the FanDuel quote of 4.650 be verified as currently executable through an active channel?
  • Is the FanDuel quote an uncorrected stale price given that it sits far above the eleven-operator median of 4.100?

Why the market may simply be right

  • The median reference price across eleven operators is much shorter at 4.100, suggesting the true market consensus disagrees with the 4.650 outlier quote.