David Allen vs Thomas Carty

David Allen to win · Moneyline

Declined after researchCandidate CAND-20260905-82a4a38c

NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION

This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.

Decision

Outcome: Declined after research
Main reason: Dispersion implausible (and 3 more)
Decided: 2026-09-05 18:06 UTC
Policy: v1.2

Gates that did not pass

PriceBest price too far above the market reference to be believedFailed
FreshnessConfirmed personnel information required and not yet publishedFailed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed

Full gate trace (9 gates)

Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceMaterial claims supported by enough distinct sourcesPassed
PriceBest price too far above the market reference to be believedFailed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessConfirmed personnel information required and not yet publishedFailed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed

Why it entered research

Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.

The screening row for this candidate was not retained.

Screened: not retained
Market: Moneyline
Best verified price: 1.770
Market reference: 1.580 · 27 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds: 1.69 · edge 8.46%

Research

Evidence grade CAdversarial review · Blocking

Heavyweight Contest: David Allen vs. Thomas Carty Market Discrepancy Analysis

David Allen faces Thomas Carty in a 10-round heavyweight contest on September 5, 2026, at Croke Park in Dublin on the Katie Taylor vs. Flora Pili undercard. While Dave Allen enters having publicly acknowledged a terrible training camp and struggling in gym preparations, market pricing displays an unexplained outlier quote of 1.770 on betfair_ex_uk against a 27-operator median of 1.580, with critical payload ambiguities regarding the specific selection and available exchange depth.

Primary case

David Allen (26-9-2, 20 KOs) publicly admitted to enduring a terrible training camp and struggling in the gym as his career approaches its final stages (CL-c8a09230-3d8, CL-139d0e6c-d8c).
Thomas Carty (11-1, 9 KOs) rebounded from a severe knee injury suffered against Dajuan Calloway by securing a points decision over German Skobenko in March (CL-bef9f17b-67c, CL-f0c08108-475).
Allen enters the 10-round contest following a May defeat to Filip Hrgovic and subsequent lower-tier tune-up fights, fighting Dublin native Carty on Carty's home turf at Croke Park (CL-e571d277-a0e, CL-444f1f28-05a).

Market context

The best global price observed is 1.770 from operator betfair_ex_uk recorded at 17:56 UTC on September 5, 2026, compared to a movement log price of 1.620 logged at 17:29 UTC.