GLINTARY
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GLINTARY

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Tennis · ATP US Open ·

Luciano Darderi vs Dane Sweeny

Dane Sweeny to win · Moneyline

Declined after researchCandidate CAND-20260905-7667ab32
NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION
This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.

Decision

Outcome
Declined after research
Main reason
Evidence grade below the lockable set (and 4 more)
Decided
Policy
v1.1

Gates that did not pass

  • EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
  • PriceRecorded price below the minimum qualifying oddsFailed
  • FreshnessConfirmed personnel information required and not yet publishedFailed
  • UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
  • Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)
  1. Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
  2. EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
  3. PriceRecorded price below the minimum qualifying oddsFailed
  4. Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
  5. FreshnessConfirmed personnel information required and not yet publishedFailed
  6. UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
  7. Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
  8. DuplicationNo existing position on this eventPassed
  9. PresentationPresentation compliantPassed

Why it entered research

Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.

  • Enough operators for a market reference
  • Price inside the freshness limit
  • Price above the de-vigged fair price
  • Operators disagree on the price
Screened
Market
Moneyline
Best verified price
3.900
Market reference
3.870 · 11 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
4.19 · edge -3.63%

Research

Evidence grade CAdversarial review · Blocking

Research Position Note

This research note evaluates the current market context and underlying data, highlighting significant data weaknesses and unsupported claims regarding match outcomes.

Primary case

  • The global price is available on FanDuel.
  • World ranking is recorded at 18.

Market context

  • The market reference price is determined using the median across multiple operator sources.
  • Market movement data reflects a single sample observation without a recorded prior opening price.
  • The market shows a moderate level of dispersion across the sampled operator prices.
  • The market features 11 operator sources with a moderate dispersion of 10.71 percent, indicating active consensus pricing.

What the price requires

  • Assumes the median across 11 operator sources accurately reflects the true probability of the outcome despite moderate dispersion.

Major uncertainty

The claims supporting the pipeline are entirely unsupported tennis match outcomes, and market movement data lacks a historical opening price to assess whether the current price of 4.650 represents value or a drift towards an accurate number.

Material findings and their support

  • Other · against the caseLuciano Darderi defeated Cristian Garin 7-6 (5), 7-5, 7-6 (3) at the Australian Open.Unsupported
  • Other · against the caseDane Sweeny defeated Gael Monfils 6-7 (3), 7-5, 6-4, 7-5 at the Australian Open.Unsupported

Adversarial review

The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.

The claims supporting the pipeline are entirely unsupported tennis match outcomes, and market movement data lacks a historical opening price to assess whether the current price of 4.650 represents value or a drift towards an accurate number.

Blocking questions

  • What is the actual identity of the event and selection being wagered on given that the provided claims reference unrelated Australian Open matches?
  • How can an edge be defended when market movement has zero historical samples to determine if the price is drifting?

Why the market may simply be right

  • The market features 11 operator sources with a moderate dispersion of 10.71 percent, indicating active consensus pricing.