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Benjamin Bonzi to win · Moneyline
Gates that did not pass
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
The screening row for this candidate was not retained.
Benjamin Bonzi faces Karen Khachanov on Saturday, September 5, 2026, at the US Open (CL-4a881376-f2e) following strong serving performances across his first two rounds, including 22 aces and an 89% first-serve points won rate (CS-5eb11fc5-d90). A top available price of 3.150 at Matchbook presents an edge against a market reference median of 2.800 across 58 operators, though exchange liquidity and commission overhead remain crucial execution caveats.
Primary case
Market context
What the price requires
Major uncertainty
The edge relies entirely on a single exchange price (Matchbook at 3.150) that sits 12.5% above the 58-operator market median (2.800) with zero movement history to confirm whether this price reflects real volume or a fleeting, illiquid outlier.
Material findings and their support
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
The edge relies entirely on a single exchange price (Matchbook at 3.150) that sits 12.5% above the 58-operator market median (2.800) with zero movement history to confirm whether this price reflects real volume or a fleeting, illiquid outlier.
Blocking questions
Why the market may simply be right