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Taylor Bevan vs Emmet Brennan
Emmet Brennan to win · Moneyline
Decision
- Outcome
- Declined after research
- Main reason
- Evidence grade below the lockable set (and 3 more)
- Decided
- Policy
- v1.1
Gates that did not pass
- EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
- FreshnessConfirmed personnel information required and not yet publishedFailed
- UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
- Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)
- Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
- EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
- PriceRecorded price clears the minimum qualifying oddsPassed
- Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
- FreshnessConfirmed personnel information required and not yet publishedFailed
- UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
- Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
- DuplicationNo existing position on this eventPassed
- PresentationPresentation compliantPassed
Why it entered research
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
- Enough operators for a market reference
- Price inside the freshness limit
- Price above the de-vigged fair price
- Operators disagree on the price
- Screened
- Market
- Moneyline
- Best verified price
- 4.300
- Market reference
- 3.845 · 4 operators
- Minimum Qualifying Odds
- 4.21 · edge 5.81%
Research
Research Note: Market Position Analysis
This research note evaluates the current market context, pricing structure, and associated risks for the position.
Primary case
- The current best available price is offered via betus a data provider.
- The market reference price is established using the median of operators method across four total operators.
Market context
- There is only a single sample available for price movement, so historical movement cannot be determined.
- The market exhibits a level of price dispersion across the four participating operators.
- The market still clears the threshold.
What the price requires
- Requires the offered price from betus to be fully executable without stake limits or immediate re-quoting.
- Requires the 4-operator median reference price to accurately reflect true market consensus.
Major uncertainty
The entire position rests on a single point-in-time observation from one operator (betus) via an external provider with zero historical price movement data, while assuming that a 5.81% calculated edge over a 4-operator median reference price is robust despite an 11.83% dispersion.
Adversarial review
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
The entire position rests on a single point-in-time observation from one operator (betus) via an external provider with zero historical price movement data, while assuming that a 5.81% calculated edge over a 4-operator median reference price is robust despite an 11.83% dispersion.
Blocking questions
- What is the actual liquidity and maximum allowable stake on the betus price of 4.300?
- Why is there an 11.83% dispersion across the four operators, and which specific operator represents the most efficient line?
- How can an edge be reliably claimed when historical price movement cannot be determined due to having only a single sample?
Why the market may simply be right
- The 11.83% dispersion across the four operators suggests high uncertainty or that outlier prices like 4.300 may reflect stale lines rather than true mispricing.
- Without historical movement samples, it is unknown whether the market is actively adjusting toward the offered price or if the offered price is a lagging stale quote.