Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruña

Draw · Match Winner

Review requiredCandidate CAND-20260905-65d1f8fc

NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION

This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. A contradiction or presentation defect that code does not resolve on its own.

Decision

Outcome: Review required
Main reason: Recorded price outside the allowed odds band (and 2 more)
Decided: 2026-09-05 18:15 UTC
Policy: v1.2

Gates that did not pass

PriceRecorded price outside the allowed odds bandFailed
UncertaintyTwo sources disagree on a material claimFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed

Full gate trace (9 gates)

Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceMaterial claims supported by enough distinct sourcesPassed
PriceRecorded price outside the allowed odds bandFailed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyTwo sources disagree on a material claimFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed

Why it entered research

Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.

The screening row for this candidate was not retained.

Screened: not retained
Market: Match Winner
Best verified price: 5.250
Market reference: 4.700 · 56 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds: 5.17 · edge 5.27%

Research

Evidence grade B-Adversarial review · High

Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruña: Away Price Evaluation at Estadio de la Cerámica

Betsson lists Deportivo La Coruña at 5.250 against a 56-operator reference median of 4.750 and a de-vigged fair price of 5.029. While Deportivo enters unbeaten (1-2-0, 5 points) facing a winless Villarreal side (0-2-1, 2 points), confirmed material absences for Deportivo and a razor-thin threshold clearance create significant risk.

Primary case

Deportivo La Coruña enters the fixture unbeaten in league play with 5 points (1-2-0) and sits 8th in the table, compared to Villarreal who are winless with 2 points (0-2-1) in 15th position (CL-8d4ab40c-f1a, CS-b156a4e7-8bb).
Historical head-to-head metrics show a competitive record of 4 Villarreal wins, 4 draws, and 3 Deportivo La Coruña wins across recorded meetings (CS-60346a51-20a).
Betsson's offered quote of 5.250 represents an implied 4.39 percent edge over the de-vigged benchmark price of 5.029 (fair probability 19.88 percent).

Market context

The best available global decimal price is 5.250 from Betsson, which clears the acceptable price threshold of 5.210 by 0.04.
The consensus median across 56 operators is 4.750, yielding a proportional de-vigged fair price of 5.029 under an estimated 5.88 percent overround.
Market dispersion stands at 10.53 percent across 56 operators, but price movement history is limited to a single sample at 5.000 with no baseline opening data recorded.