GLINTARY
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GLINTARY

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Football · Super League - China ·

Shandong Luneng Taishan FC vs Shenzhen Peng City FC

Shenzhen Peng City FC to win · Match Winner

Declined after researchCandidate CAND-20260905-37da97a8
NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION
This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.

Decision

Outcome
Declined after research
Main reason
Evidence grade below the lockable set (and 2 more)
Decided
Policy
v1.1

Gates that did not pass

  • EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
  • UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
  • Adversarial reviewAdversarial review raised a blocking questionFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)
  1. Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
  2. EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
  3. PriceRecorded price clears the minimum qualifying oddsPassed
  4. Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
  5. FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
  6. UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
  7. Adversarial reviewAdversarial review raised a blocking questionFailed
  8. DuplicationNo existing position on this eventPassed
  9. PresentationPresentation compliantPassed

Why it entered research

Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.

  • Enough operators for a market reference
  • Price inside the freshness limit
  • Price above the de-vigged fair price
  • Operators disagree on the price
Screened
Market
Match Winner
Best verified price
4.800
Market reference
4.300 · 7 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
4.80 · edge 3.67%

Research

Evidence grade CAdversarial review · Medium

Research Position Note

This note examines the current market pricing and data constraints for the position, highlighting notable price dispersion and limited movement tracking samples.

Primary case

  • The best available price is currently offered by FanDuel.

Market context

  • The current best available price is offered by FanDuel.
  • The market reference price is determined using the median across several operator sources.
  • Movement tracking is based on a single sample, so price trajectory details are unavailable.
  • The market exhibits a notable level of price dispersion across the surveyed operators.
  • The position still clears the threshold.

What the price requires

  • Requires execution at the currently available price despite a lack of historical trajectory details.

Major uncertainty

The current position relies entirely on a single sample for movement tracking with no historical trajectory details, and the market reference price relies on a relatively small operator count of 7 while exhibiting a notable price dispersion of 11.63%

Adversarial review

The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.

The current position relies entirely on a single sample for movement tracking with no historical trajectory details, and the market reference price relies on a relatively small operator count of 7 while exhibiting a notable price dispersion of 11.63%

Blocking questions

  • What is the historical price trajectory of this selection given that movement tracking currently has only a single sample?
  • Can the best available price of 4.800 on FanDuel be reliably executed given the notable 11.63% price dispersion across the 7 surveyed operators?

Why the market may simply be right

  • The 11.63% price dispersion across the 7 operators indicates disagreement, meaning outlier prices like FanDuel at 4.800 may reflect stale lines or mispricing rather than a true exploitable edge