Air Force Falcons vs Duquesne Dukes · Air Force Falcons -30.5 · candidate | GLINTARY

← All candidates Engine Activity This scan

American Football · NCAAF · 2026-09-05 17:00 UTC

Air Force Falcons vs Duquesne Dukes

Air Force Falcons -30.5 · Spread

Declined after researchCandidate CAND-20260905-27cd7618

NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION

This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.

Decision

Outcome: Declined after research
Main reason: Evidence grade below the lockable set (and 3 more)
Decided: 2026-09-05 14:11 UTC
Policy: v1.2

Gates that did not pass

EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
PriceRecorded price below the minimum qualifying oddsFailed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed

Full gate trace (9 gates)

Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
PriceRecorded price below the minimum qualifying oddsFailed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed

Why it entered research

Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.

The screening row for this candidate was not retained.

Screened: not retained
Market: Spread
Best verified price: 1.910
Market reference: 1.740 · 3 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds: 1.92 · edge 3.08%

Research

Evidence grade UNGRADEDAdversarial review · Blocking

Market Pricing Evaluation for 1.950 FanDuel Quote

A potential 5.23% edge is indicated based on a FanDuel quote of 1.950 against a 3-operator reference median of 1.740 (fair price 1.853), but execution viability is unverified, underlying sports data is absent, and the red team flags blocking issues.

Primary case

The current best global price recorded is 1.950 at FanDuel as of 2026-09-05T14:08:38.877Z.
Against a reference price of 1.740 from a median of 3 operators, the de-vigged fair price is calculated at 1.853, yielding a theoretical 5.23% edge above the acceptable threshold of 1.92.

Market context

Current best global price is 1.950 offered by FanDuel in the US region recorded at 2026-09-05T14:08:38.877Z.
Market reference price is 1.740 across a median of 3 operators, resulting in a de-vigged fair price of 1.853 and threshold price of 1.92 with a 5.23% edge.
Dispersion across the 3 operators is high at 12.07%.
Historical line movement is unknown due to only 1 sample being available with no opening price.

What the price requires

The price requires that the FanDuel 1.950 offer is genuinely executable and actionable despite best_executable being null.
The price assumes the 3-operator median of 1.740 accurately represents market consensus rather than FanDuel's price reflecting superior or updated information.