Grasshopper Zürich vs FC Zurich

Under 2.5 total goals · Total

Declined after researchCandidate CAND-20260905-1fb4d9d0

NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION

This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.

Decision

Outcome: Declined after research
Main reason: Dispersion implausible (and 3 more)
Decided: 2026-09-05 17:53 UTC
Policy: v1.2

Gates that did not pass

EvidenceNo source of a high enough tierFailed
PriceBest price too far above the market reference to be believedFailed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed

Full gate trace (9 gates)

Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceNo source of a high enough tierFailed
PriceBest price too far above the market reference to be believedFailed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed

Why it entered research

Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.

The screening row for this candidate was not retained.

Screened: not retained
Market: Total
Best verified price: 2.460
Market reference: 2.140 · 16 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds: 2.40 · edge 6.36%

Research

Evidence grade CAdversarial review · Blocking

Swiss Super League: Grasshopper Club Zürich vs. FC Zürich Market Evaluation

Matchbook offers an apparent outlier price of 2.440 against a 16-operator market median of 2.140 for the Swiss Super League round 7 clash. However, all material injury claims substantiating squad conditions are stale, and price movement tracking is absent with only a single recorded price observation.

Primary case

Matchbook offers a decimal price of 2.440 in the UK, exceeding the acceptable price threshold of 2.40 with a calculated 5.49 percent edge against a de-vigged fair price of 2.313.
Sports tracking logs 3 reported player absences for Grasshopper and 3 reported absences for FC Zürich (CS-b3df3f95-b66).
Historical head-to-head records document 16 wins for Grasshopper Club Zürich, 31 wins for FC Zürich, and 8 draws (CS-b3df3f95-b66).
Current standings record Grasshopper with 1 league point and FC Zürich with 6 league points (CS-4aec6713-fae).

Market context

The market reference price across 16 operators sits at a median of 2.140, yielding an estimated fair probability of 43.24 percent and an overround of 8.08 percent.
The operator price dispersion is wide at 14.02 percent across the 16 tracked books.
No historical movement or opening price data exists, as only a single price point of 2.440 has been sampled.

What the price requires