Fabia Sintes vs Michael Aljarouj

Fabia Sintes to win · Moneyline

Declined after researchCandidate CAND-20260905-0e9188b4

NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION

This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.

Decision

Outcome: Declined after research
Main reason: A blocking open question remains (and 4 more)
Decided: 2026-09-05 17:24 UTC
Policy: v1.2

Gates that did not pass

Event integrityThe event had already startedFailed
PriceBest price too far above the market reference to be believedFailed
FreshnessPersonnel information older than the limitFailed
UncertaintyA blocking open question remainsFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed

Full gate trace (9 gates)

Event integrityThe event had already startedFailed
EvidenceMaterial claims supported by enough distinct sourcesPassed
PriceBest price too far above the market reference to be believedFailed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPersonnel information older than the limitFailed
UncertaintyA blocking open question remainsFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed

Why it entered research

Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.

The screening row for this candidate was not retained.

Screened: not retained
Market: Moneyline
Best verified price: 3.000
Market reference: 2.235 · 8 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds: 2.47 · edge 25.84%

Research

Evidence grade BAdversarial review · Blocking

UFC Paris: Fabia Sintes vs. Michael Aljarouj Market Analysis

At UFC Paris, regional champions Fabia Sintes and Michael Aljarouj make their promotional debuts. An observed price of 3.700 on Sintes at BetRivers represents an apparent 54.75% edge over the policy threshold of 2.48, but faces a blocking red team objection due to an extreme 62.64% market dispersion against an 8-operator median of 2.275.

Primary case

Fabia Sintes enters the matchup on a 7-fight winning streak with an 11-3 professional record and successfully weighed in at 125 lbs.
The bout represents a clash of debuting regional champions, with Sintes entering as WOW champion against Hexagone champion Michael Aljarouj (13-3, 2 NC), who weighed in at 126 lbs.
While Aljarouj fights out of Paris creating a home environment, Sintes's submission grappling creates a distinct stylistic clash against Aljarouj's striking.

Market context

The best globally available price observed is 3.700 from BetRivers (US region) recorded at 2026-09-05T17:20:27.038Z under evidence OE-19742a3c74076d9e.
The market reference price across 8 operators shows a median of 2.275, establishing a two-way de-vigged fair price of 2.391 (41.82% win probability) with a 5.12% overround.
Under policy v1.0, applying a 2.00% edge buffer and 1.50% uncertainty margin yields an acceptable threshold of 2.48.