Goiás vs Fortaleza

Over 2.5 total goals · Total

Declined after researchCandidate CAND-20260905-03833209

NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION

This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.

Decision

Outcome: Declined after research
Main reason: Best price too far above the market reference to be believed (and 3 more)
Decided: 2026-09-05 18:06 UTC
Policy: v1.2

Gates that did not pass

EvidenceNo source of a high enough tierFailed
PriceBest price too far above the market reference to be believedFailed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed

Full gate trace (9 gates)

Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceNo source of a high enough tierFailed
PriceBest price too far above the market reference to be believedFailed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed

Why it entered research

Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.

The screening row for this candidate was not retained.

Screened: not retained
Market: Total
Best verified price: 2.700
Market reference: 2.330 · 17 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds: 2.62 · edge 7.02%

Research

Evidence grade B-Adversarial review · High

Goiás vs Fortaleza: Market Valuation and Squad Trends Assessment

Analysis of Goiás vs Fortaleza evaluates recent form indicators—notably Fortaleza's five-match unbeaten streak under Paulo Autuori and an 83% historical trend of Under 2.5 goals across their last six meetings—against a market backdrop featuring an outlier 2.700 quote on Matchbook compared to a 17-operator median of 2.330.

Primary case

Fortaleza enters the match on a five-match unbeaten streak under manager Paulo Autuori, bolstered by Pedro Henrique's scoring form, Pierre returning from suspension, and new signing Caio Henrique becoming available (CL-d1fba76a-124, CS-e289fc02-a92).
Under 2.5 goals has been recorded in 83% of the last six head-to-head meetings between Goiás and Fortaleza, as well as in each of Fortaleza's previous three fixtures (CL-876d99aa-341, CL-2d973125-f71, CS-cefd7d7f-e05).
Goiás midfielder R. Oliveira dos Santos is managing a fitness issue ahead of the match, while Goiás has recorded 25 goals scored and 30 conceded over 25 matches played (CL-dbc7e059-7fc, CS-62088f26-f7e).

Market context

The top available quote is 2.700 via Matchbook in the UK region, recorded at 2026-09-05T17:57:16.579Z (odds evidence ID OE-9eb7a76d5443a455).
The market reference median across 17 operators sits at 2.330, yielding a proportional two-way de-vigged fair price of 2.523 (fair probability 39.64%, overround 8.28%).