GLINTARY
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GLINTARY

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American Football · NCAAF ·

James Madison Dukes vs Liberty Flames

Liberty Flames to win · Moneyline

Declined after researchCandidate CAND-20260905-0222fbfa
NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION
This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.

Decision

Outcome
Declined after research
Main reason
Evidence grade below the lockable set (and 3 more)
Decided
Policy
v1.1

Gates that did not pass

  • EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
  • FreshnessNewest supporting source older than the limitFailed
  • UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
  • Adversarial reviewAdversarial review raised a blocking questionFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)
  1. Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
  2. EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
  3. PriceRecorded price clears the minimum qualifying oddsPassed
  4. Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
  5. FreshnessNewest supporting source older than the limitFailed
  6. UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
  7. Adversarial reviewAdversarial review raised a blocking questionFailed
  8. DuplicationNo existing position on this eventPassed
  9. PresentationPresentation compliantPassed

Why it entered research

Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.

  • Enough operators for a market reference
  • Price inside the freshness limit
  • Price above the de-vigged fair price
  • Operators disagree on the price
Screened
Market
Moneyline
Best verified price
3.100
Market reference
2.850 · 11 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
3.07 · edge 4.52%

Research

Evidence grade CAdversarial review · Low

Market Research Note: Pricing Discrepancy Evaluation

An evaluation of current pricing conditions highlights a divergence between the best global price offered by BetRivers and the broader market consensus across evaluated operators.

Primary case

  • The best global price is observed at BetRivers at a rate of 3.100.
  • The market reference price established using the median of active operators is 2.850.

Market context

  • The current best global price is observed at the top available rate offered by BetRivers.
  • The market reference price is established using the median of all active operators across the market.
  • There is currently insufficient historical movement data available to determine a price shift percentage from an opening price.
  • The dispersion across the evaluated operators indicates a moderate spread in the offered prices.

What the price requires

  • Requires the execution price of 3.100 on BetRivers to remain available.
  • Requires the market median reference price to remain stable.

Major uncertainty

The edge is reliant entirely on a single best global price from BetRivers at 3.100 while the median market reference is 2.850, meaning if BetRivers is stale or an outlier, the calculated edge evaporates.

Adversarial review

The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.

The edge is reliant entirely on a single best global price from betrivers at 3.100 while the median market reference is 2.850, meaning if betrivers is stale or an outlier, the calculated edge evaporates.

Blocking questions

  • Is the best global price on betrivers still actively available for execution at 3.100?
  • Why is betrivers offering a price so far above the 11-operator median of 2.850?

Why the market may simply be right

  • The market reference price median is 2.850 across 11 operators, indicating that the broader market consensus views 3.100 as significantly higher than typical consensus value.