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Ryan Spann to win · Moneyline
Gates that did not pass
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
The screening row for this candidate was not retained.
Ryan Spann enters the heavyweight bout against undefeated Mario Pinto (12-0, 3-0 UFC) coming off consecutive heavyweight stoppage wins over Lukasz Brzeski and Marcus Buchecha. While Betfair Exchange lists Spann at an outlier price of 4.300 compared to a 35-operator median of 3.700, this potential pricing discrepancy is unconfirmed by matched volume and is captured in only a single data observation.
Primary case
Market context
What the price requires
Major uncertainty
The edge relies entirely on an isolated exchange quote of 4.300 from betfair_ex_uk that diverges substantially from the 35-operator median of 3.700, captured across only a single observation snapshot with zero recorded volume or liquidity depth.
Material findings and their support
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
The edge relies entirely on an isolated exchange quote of 4.300 from betfair_ex_uk that diverges substantially from the 35-operator median of 3.700, captured across only a single observation snapshot with zero recorded volume or liquidity depth.
Blocking questions
Why the market may simply be right