GLINTARY
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GLINTARY

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Baseball · MLB ·

Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers

Cleveland Guardians -1.5 · Spread

PassCandidate CAND-20260904-9d758e12
NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION
This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Assessed on merit and declined. Most candidates are meant to end here.

Decision

Outcome
Pass
Main reason
Evidence grade below the lockable set (and 3 more)
Decided
2026-09-03 23:59:55 UTC
Policy
v1.1

Gates that did not pass

  • EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
  • FreshnessConfirmed personnel information required and not yet publishedFailed
  • UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
  • Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)
  1. Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
  2. EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
  3. PriceRecorded price clears the minimum qualifying oddsPassed
  4. Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
  5. FreshnessConfirmed personnel information required and not yet publishedFailed
  6. UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
  7. Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
  8. DuplicationNo existing position on this eventPassed
  9. PresentationPresentation compliantPassed

Why it entered research

Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.

  • Price above the de-vigged fair price
  • Enough operators for a market reference
  • Price inside the freshness limit
Screened
2026-09-03 23:55:44 UTC
Market
Spread
Best verified price
2.750
Market reference
2.580 · 7 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
2.75 · edge 3.62%

Research

Evidence grade CAdversarial review · Blocking

Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Research Note

This research note evaluates the matchup between the Detroit Tigers and the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field.

Primary case

  • Progressive Field is set to host the matchup between the Detroit Tigers and the Cleveland Guardians.

Market context

  • The current best global price is observed on bovada within the us region.
  • The market reference price is derived from the median of multiple operators.
  • The movement tracks a single recorded sample without an opening price comparison.
  • The market shows price dispersion across several operators.

What the price requires

  • The market requires the single observed sample on bovada at decimal price 2.750 to be stable and actionable.

Major uncertainty

The position lock relies on a single recorded price sample and a narrow edge calculation without an opening price comparison or historical movement context, making it vulnerable to mispricing or stale data.

Material findings and their support

  • Venue · material · for the caseProgressive Field is set to host the matchup between the Detroit Tigers and the Cleveland Guardians.Partially supported

Adversarial review

The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.

The position lock relies on a single recorded price sample and a narrow edge calculation without an opening price comparison or historical movement context, making it vulnerable to mispricing or stale data.

Blocking questions

  • What is the historical movement of this price compared to its opening price?
  • Can the best global price on bovada be actually executed given that the best executable price is currently null?
  • Why is the venue claim only partially supported?
  • Does the 6.80 percent dispersion indicate market inefficiency or a disagreement on fundamental game inputs?

Why the market may simply be right

  • The market shows price dispersion across several operators, indicating active pricing that may account for uncaptured variables.