← All candidatesEngine ActivityThis scan
Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers
Cleveland Guardians -1.5 · Spread
Decision
- Outcome
- Pass
- Main reason
- Evidence grade below the lockable set (and 3 more)
- Decided
- 2026-09-03 23:59:55 UTC
- Policy
- v1.1
Gates that did not pass
- EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
- FreshnessConfirmed personnel information required and not yet publishedFailed
- UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
- Adversarial reviewAdversarial review raised a blocking questionFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)
- Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
- EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
- PriceRecorded price clears the minimum qualifying oddsPassed
- Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
- FreshnessConfirmed personnel information required and not yet publishedFailed
- UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
- Adversarial reviewAdversarial review raised a blocking questionFailed
- DuplicationNo existing position on this eventPassed
- PresentationPresentation compliantPassed
Why it entered research
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
- Enough operators for a market reference
- Price inside the freshness limit
- Price above the de-vigged fair price
- Operators disagree on the price
- Screened
- 2026-09-03 23:52:13 UTC
- Market
- Spread
- Best verified price
- 2.750
- Market reference
- 2.580 · 7 operators
- Minimum Qualifying Odds
- 2.75 · edge 3.62%
Research
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field
An analysis of the matchup between the Detroit Tigers and the Cleveland Guardians hosted at Progressive Field, evaluating available market pricing and consensus lines.
Primary case
- Progressive Field is set to host the matchup between the Detroit Tigers and the Cleveland Guardians.
Market context
- The current best global price is offered on Bovada with an observed timestamp reflecting late evening.
- The market reference price is determined using the median of multiple operators across several tracked sportsbooks.
- The opening price and movement percentage are currently unrecorded as only a single sample is available.
- The market shows a dispersion percentage calculated across a handful of participating operators.
- The market reference median price of 2.575 across 6 operators suggests the consensus probability is higher than the best available global price implies, meaning the consensus may correctly account for risks not captured in the edge calculation.
What the price requires
- The Bovada price of 2.750 must be currently actionable and executable rather than a delayed or stale line.
- The median of 6 operators must accurately reflect the true market consensus probability without lagging.
Major uncertainty
The edge relies on a single operator's price (Bovada at 2.750) diverging from a market reference median of 2.575, which could represent a stale or isolated quote rather than a true mispricing.
Material findings and their support
- Venue · for the caseProgressive Field is set to host the matchup between the Detroit Tigers and the Cleveland Guardians.Supported
Adversarial review
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
The edge relies on a single operator's price (Bovada at 2.750) diverging from a market reference median of 2.575, which could represent a stale or isolated quote rather than a true mispricing.
Blocking questions
- Is the Bovada price of 2.750 currently live and fully executable for the desired stake size?
- Why does a 6.80% dispersion exist across the 6 tracked operators, and does Bovada represent an outlier due to delayed updates?
Why the market may simply be right
- The market reference median price of 2.575 across 6 operators suggests the consensus probability is higher than the best available global price implies, meaning the consensus may correctly account for risks not captured in the edge calculation.