GLINTARY
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Football · Eliteserien - Norway ·

Sandefjord vs Viking FK

Sandefjord to win · Match Winner

PassCandidate CAND-20260904-40d390b9
NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION
This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Assessed on merit and declined. Most candidates are meant to end here.

Decision

Outcome
Pass
Main reason
Evidence grade below the lockable set (and 3 more)
Decided
2026-09-04 05:06:30 UTC
Policy
v1.1

Gates that did not pass

  • EvidenceNo source of a high enough tierFailed
  • PriceRecorded price below the minimum qualifying oddsFailed
  • UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
  • Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)
  1. Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
  2. EvidenceNo source of a high enough tierFailed
  3. PriceRecorded price below the minimum qualifying oddsFailed
  4. Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
  5. FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
  6. UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
  7. Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
  8. DuplicationNo existing position on this eventPassed
  9. PresentationPresentation compliantPassed

Why it entered research

Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.

  • Enough operators for a market reference
  • Price inside the freshness limit
  • Price above the de-vigged fair price
  • Operators disagree on the price
Screened
2026-09-04 04:45:05 UTC
Market
Match Winner
Best verified price
4.350
Market reference
4.100 · 9 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
4.47 · edge 0.79%

Research

Evidence grade CAdversarial review · Blocking

Sandefjord vs Viking FK Research Note

This note examines the upcoming Eliteserien fixture between Sandefjord and Viking FK scheduled for Friday, September 4, 2026.

Primary case

  • Sandefjord is scheduled to play Viking FK in an Eliteserien fixture on Friday, September 4, 2026.

Market context

  • The current best global price is 4.700 provided by betrivers in the United States region.
  • The market reference price is 4.200 determined as the median across nine operators.
  • The calculated de-vigged fair price is 4.481 with an overround of 6.68 percent, establishing an acceptable threshold of 4.64 under policy version 1.0.
  • The dispersion of prices across the nine tracked operators is 11.90 percent.

What the price requires

  • Requires the betrivers price of 4.700 to remain valid and available.

Major uncertainty

The position is highly vulnerable because it relies on a single recorded price sample with no movement history, lacks an executable path, and relies on an unsupported, mathematically inconsistent performance claim.

Material findings and their support

  • Market context · material · for the caseSandefjord is scheduled to play Viking FK in an Eliteserien fixture on Friday, September 4, 2026.Supported
  • Other · material · for the caseSandefjord is scheduled to play Viking FK in an Eliteserien match on Friday, September 4, 2026.Supported
  • Statistic · against the caseIn their last five reported matches, Sandefjord achieved 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses, averaging 3.4 goals scored and 0.6 goals conceded per match.Unsupported

Adversarial review

The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.

The position is highly vulnerable because it relies on a single recorded price sample with no movement history, lacks an executable path, and relies on an unsupported, mathematically inconsistent performance claim.

Blocking questions

  • Can we verify the actual performance stats for Sandefjord since claim CL-1694f04a-cca is unsupported and mathematically inconsistent?
  • Why is the best executable price null, and can we execute this trade at the 4.700 rate?
  • Is the single observed price of 4.700 stable, or is it a temporary outlier, given the lack of historical price samples?

Why the market may simply be right

  • With a high price dispersion of 11.90 percent across nine operators, the median reference price of 4.200 may represent the correct fair market consensus, and the outlier price of 4.700 from betrivers may be an error or a stale price.