GLINTARY
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GLINTARY

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Baseball · MLB ·

Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers

Cleveland Guardians -1.5 · Spread

PassCandidate CAND-20260904-1591aaa9
NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION
This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Assessed on merit and declined. Most candidates are meant to end here.

Decision

Outcome
Pass
Main reason
Evidence grade below the lockable set (and 3 more)
Decided
2026-09-03 23:59:55 UTC
Policy
v1.1

Gates that did not pass

  • EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
  • FreshnessConfirmed personnel information required and not yet publishedFailed
  • UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
  • Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)
  1. Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
  2. EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
  3. PriceRecorded price clears the minimum qualifying oddsPassed
  4. Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
  5. FreshnessConfirmed personnel information required and not yet publishedFailed
  6. UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
  7. Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
  8. DuplicationNo existing position on this eventPassed
  9. PresentationPresentation compliantPassed

Why it entered research

Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.

  • Price above the de-vigged fair price
  • Enough operators for a market reference
  • Price inside the freshness limit
Screened
2026-09-03 23:55:44 UTC
Market
Spread
Best verified price
2.750
Market reference
2.580 · 7 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
2.75 · edge 3.62%

Research

Evidence grade B-Adversarial review · Blocking

Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field

This research note evaluates the matchup between the Detroit Tigers and the Cleveland Guardians hosted at Progressive Field.

Primary case

  • Progressive Field hosts matchups between the Detroit Tigers and the Cleveland Guardians.
  • Progressive Field hosts the weekend matchup between the Detroit Tigers and the Cleveland Guardians.

Market context

  • The current best global price is offered by Bovada.
  • The market reference price is established via the median across six operators.
  • Price movement tracking shows a single recorded sample with no prior opening price movement percentage available.
  • Market dispersion stands at a moderate percentage across the six participating operators.

What the price requires

  • The market reference price relies on the median across six operators to clear the threshold.

Major uncertainty

The current price movement tracking relies on a single recorded sample with no opening price movement percentage available, making it impossible to determine if the price is drifting or stable.

Material findings and their support

  • Venue · for the caseProgressive Field hosts matchups between the Detroit Tigers and the Cleveland Guardians.Supported
  • Other · material · for the caseProgressive Field hosts the weekend matchup between the Detroit Tigers and the Cleveland Guardians.Supported

Adversarial review

The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.

The current price movement tracking relies on a single recorded sample with no opening price movement percentage available, making it impossible to determine if the price is drifting or stable.

Blocking questions

  • What was the opening price movement percentage prior to the current observed sample?
  • How does the single-sample movement limitation impact the reliability of the calculated edge percentage?

Why the market may simply be right

  • The market reference price is established via the median across six operators, indicating that a broader consensus has been priced in by the majority of the market outside of the single Bovada offering.